Metals
![Weekly Recap and Forecast [20 June 2025] Oil Prices Continue to Climb as Tension in the Middle East Escalates, Fed Warns of Stagflation](https://www.startrader-za.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Weekly-Recap-and-Forecast-20-June-2025-Oil-Prices-Continue-to-Climb-as-Tension-in-the-Middle-East-Escalates-Fed-Warns-of-Stagflation-1024x536.png)
Key Takeaways
- Oil prices rose as tension in the Middle East escalates, and the US threatens to attack Iran. Brent breaks above $77
- Gold retreates as the USD strengthens following the Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting.
- The US dollar recovers slightly from recent losses. The dollar index regains 99.00 level.
- The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 4.25–4.50%, but signaled caution and stagflation risk in 2025
- Japan’s core inflation hit a 2-year high, indicating interest rate hikes may be coming.
Brent breaks $77/barrel and reaches its highest level since February
Oil prices experienced volatility during the week as conflicts in the Middle East ignited fears of regional supply disruptions. Analysts estimate that if Iranian oil exports are disrupted, Brent could potentially rise to $90 or even $120–130 if the Strait of Hormuz is shut. The closure of the Strait would severely impact global crude transport.
During the week, some reports showed Iran sought a ceasefire deal, easing some geopolitical concerns. Later in the week, prices stabilized around $76.50–77, reflecting ongoing investor caution.
As the conflict is still ongoing and the situation is developing, it’s important to closely watch Middle East dynamics, any new military actions, threats to Hormuz, or diplomatic developments.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell warns of higher inflation in 2025
During the last Federal Reserve Policy meeting, rates held steady in the 4.25–4.50% range for the sixth time, marked by a unanimous vote. Fed officials now see two rate cuts likely this year.
Fed Chair Powell stressed that inflation is still an ongoing threat, expecting tariffs to fuel future price gains. Economic projections for this year were also revised, projecting 2025 GDP growth at 1.4% instead of the previous estimations of 1.7%, unemployment is also expected to rise to 4.5% instead of 4.2%, and inflation reaching 3% by year-end with core PCE reaching 3.1%
The Dollar index breaks above 99, USD rose against major currencies
The US dollar benefited from the recent updates in the Fed’s monetary policy meeting as the Fed announced only two rate cuts till the end of the year instead of three cuts. The dollar index rose 0.5% for the week. EURUSD fell to break last week’s high, but it’s still trading near the 1.15 level. GBPUSD dropped 0.78% and fell below 1.35 psychological level. USDJPY gained 0.85% and rose above 145.00
Gold retreats as the USD recovers
After breaking $3,450 on 18 June, gold prices fell more than $100 throughout the week, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and diminished rate-cut expectations .
Silver hit 13-year highs recently and broke above $37/ounce, supported by both safe-haven flows and robust industrial demand. Year‑to‑date gains on silver surpassed 23%, driven by supply deficits and use in solar and electronics sectors.
Renewed tensions could push gold back toward $3,400, while easing may drag it to $3,300 in the upcoming days and weeks.
Key Economic Data of the week
- The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged below 0.5%
- US retail sales fell in May -0.9% on monthly basis, more than expectations of -0.5%
- Inflation declined slightly in the UK as CPI came at 3.4% on yearly basis, but still higher than expectations of 3.3%
- The Federal reserve kept interest rates at 4.50% in line with expectations
- The New Zealand economy grew 0.8%, better than expectations of 0.7%
- Swiss National Bank cut interest rates to 0.00% down from 0.25% as expected
- Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25%
- Uk retail sales fell -0.27% on a monthly basis, more than analysts’ expectations.
Major Economic Calendar Events for the Upcoming Week
| Date | Event | Country |
| Monday, 23 June | Flash Manufacturing and services PMI | Euro |
| Flash Manufacturing and services PMI | UK | |
| Flash Manufacturing and services PMI | USA | |
| Tuesday, 24 June | Consumer Price Index (CPI) | y/y | Canada |
| Thursday, 26 June | Unemployment Claim | USA |
| Final GDP q/q | USA | |
| Friday, 27 June | Consumer Price Index (CPI) | y/y | Australia |
| Gross Domestic Product (GDP) | m/m | Canada | |
| Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) | USA |
Technical Analysis and Forecast:
Oil prices show a strong bullish trend on the daily chart, but it’s currently facing resistance near the $78 levels. Failing to break above this level is bearish on the short term for prices, indicating a correction might be underway.
As long as price remains above the range $73.00-$73.31, then the uptrend remains intact. The daily moving averages 5,10,30 are all slopping upward, confirming the bullish trend. MACD is still strong, but showing a rejection near 80 level as price faces strong resistance
Current price action suggests potential for minor pullbacks to $74 levels before another push higher.
Brent (UKOUSD) Daily Chart
| Resistance | $77.23-$77.62 | $78.87-$79.24 | $80.76-$81.00 |
| Support | $74.86-$74.62 | $73.40-$73.26 | $71.75-$71.62 |
Following the double-top formation on the daily chart of Dow Jones, price fell noticeably more than 3% from the 43,118 high. 5-day and 10-day moving averages show a bearish crossover with the 30-day moving average. Price also fell below the 30-day moving average signaling a strong bearish correction.
Falling below 41,800 support level warns of further declines toward 41,200.
MACD shows weakness, supporting short-term bearish correction. Price needs to break above 42,500 to continue uptrend toward 43,100
Dow Jones Daily Chart
| Resistance | 42,511-42,524 | 42,722-42,836 | 43,119-43,231 |
| Support | 41,754-41,632 | 41,208-41,076 | 40,724-40,675- |
Gold prices fell throughout the week after reaching $3,450. While the daily chart still shows a clear uptrend, momentum has been weakening recently. The 30-day moving average is still under the price, confirming the uptrend and acting as a dynamic support level.
The next crucial support area is the psychological level of $3,300. Watch out for bullish reversal candlesticks at that level to indicate a push upward.
Closing of a daily candle below the 30-day moving average is a strong bearish sign and could push price further down toward $3,150 levels
Gold (XAUUSD) Daily Chart
| Resistance | $3,400-$3,412 | $3,442-$3,457 | $3,488-$3,505 |
| Support | $3,316-$3,320 | $3,293-$3,306 | $3,244-$3,256 |
EURUSD shows a clear uptrend on the daily chart, but the trend is slowing down recently. Price is expected to retreat towards the 30-day moving average before continuing upward. Breaking above the recent high of 1.1630 opens the door for more strength toward 1.1700 levels
MACD shows weakness in the trend as it fell below the 0 level. If daily candles close below the dynamic 30-day moving average, these warnings of further decline toward 1.1200 level.
EURUSD Daily Chart
| Resistance | 1.1623-1.1634 | 1.1692-1.1706 | 1.1754-1.1768 |
| Support | 1.1448-1.1431 | 1.1374-1.1385 | 1.1313-1.1327 |
