Metals
Key Takeaways
- Gold breaks a new record high at $3,580 on higher expectations of Fed rate cut
- Silver reaches a 14-year high as safe haven demand accelarates
- US indices resume their uptrend and near record highs
- Cryptocurrencies start to recover after August major declines
- Federal appeal court rules most Trump tariffs are illlegal. Trump appeals decision to the supreme court
- The Dollar index is mostly positive despite expectations of a rate cut
Safe Haven Demand and Fed Rate Cut Expectations Fuel Gold Rally
Gold extended its rally during the week, climbing to an all-time high of $3,578.40 per ounce, marking a gain of more than 3%. The primary driver behind this spike was a combination of political uncertainty in the U.S. and heightened global trade tensions, which reignited safe-haven demand. Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve following President Trump’s dismissal of Governor Lisa Cook added an additional layer of risk premium to gold, especially as markets price in a 99% chance of a rate cut during September’s FOMC meeting according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Silver prices jumped more than 4% during the week breaking the $41 mark, its highest level since September 2011. The rise in silver prices was amplified by strong industrial demand expectations, particularly from renewable energy and electric vehicle sectors where silver plays a crucial role.
Looking ahead, the trajectory for gold and silver will likely hinge on the Fed’s September interest rate decision, as well as any escalation in trade disputes. If the Fed signals a clear path toward multiple rate cuts, gold could push beyond $3,600 and silver may reach the $45 per ounce in the short term. However, any surprise hawkishness from the Fed could trigger profit-taking after the sharp run-up.+
Bitcoin Regains $113,000 level as Cryptocurrencies Rebound
The crypto market experienced a modest recovery last week, led by Bitcoin (BTC), which jumped back above $112,000. The rally came after a brief period of consolidation earlier in August and was supported by growing optimism that the Federal Reserve will move toward a September rate cut. Lower interest rates generally boost demand for risk assets, and crypto tends to benefit from this due to its sensitivity to liquidity conditions. Institutional flows also support prices, with spot Bitcoin ETFs showing steady inflows as large investors sought exposure to the asset amid heightened volatility in equities and currencies.
Additionally, the broader crypto market showed underlying strength despite strong retracements earlier. Metrics such as stablecoin supply and Total Value Locked (TVL) continued rising. Stablecoin circulation grew to $276 billion in August, a 36% year-on-year increase.
The main catalysts for crypto at this time remain Fed policy, institutional adoption, and regulatory headlines. If the Fed confirms a September cut, Bitcoin could retest its previous all-time highs above $124,000, with ETH potentially reaching $5,000. However, any hawkish surprise or escalation in geopolitical tensions could trigger a downward correction, given how far prices have run in recent weeks.
US Indices See Profit Taking before Pushing Toward Record Highs
US indices started the week in the red, but then reversed, driven by weak employment data and heightened odds of a September rate cut from the Fed. This dovish shift was reinforced by softer private hiring and elevated unemployment claims
This month, the market is likely to remain highly sensitive to any shift in tone from the Fed. If job growth continues to weaken, a 25-basis-point rate cut could be coming in September.
On September 3, a U.S. federal court judge issued a ruling in the case against Google, finding the company maintained an illegal monopoly in search but stopping short of imposing extreme meaasures. The judge ruled that Google must end exclusive default search agreements and share limited data with competitors. Alphabet was not required to sell its Chrome browser or Android operating system. Markets responded to the news positively. Alphabet’s shares surged following the ruling, gaining more than 9%.
Apple’s stock also rose approximately 4.8%, due to the default search agreement with Google, which brings billions in annual revenue to Apple.
Major Currencies Fall Against the US Dollar Despite Rate Cut Expectations
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) was relatively stable but ended the week slightly higher by 0.4%. This increase occurred even as markets priced at odds of a September Fed rate cut reaching near certainty.
The US dollar rose 0.81% against the Japanese Yen. USDJPY reached a high of 149.15 during the week. EURUSD showed indecisiveness as the pair traded in a narrow range around 1.1700 level. GBPUSD fell 1.25% during the week, but recovered some of its losses to close near 1.3454 level.
Key Economic Data of the week
- US ISM Manufacturing PMI shows slight improvement from 48.0 to 48.7, but still below expectations of 49.0
- GDP growth in Australia exceeds expectations at 0.6% in the second quarter, up from 0.3% in the previous reading
- US JOLTS job openings fell to 7.18m from 7.36m in the previous month, and below expectations of 7.38m
- Consumer price index in Switzerland showed decline in prices by 0.1% on a monthly basis
- ADP Non-Farm Employment change confirms slowing down in the labor market as it fell to 54K from last month reading 106K jobs
- US ISM services PMI exceeds expectations with a reading at 52.0 up from 50.1 last month
- Weekly unemployment claims in the US rose slightly to 237K from 229K last week
Major Economic Calendar Events for the Upcoming Week
| Date | Metric | Country | Previous | Time [Dubai] |
| Monday, 8 September | Final GDP q/q | Japan | 0.30% | 3:50 AM |
| Tuesday, 9 September | Eurogroup Meetings | Euro | All Day | |
| Wednesday, 10 September | Producer Price Index m/m | USA | 0.90% | 4:30 PM |
| Thursday, 11 September | Interest Rate Decision | Euro | 2.15% | 4:15 PM |
| Consumer Price Index y/y | USA | 2.70% | 4:30 PM | |
| Unemployment Claims | USA | 4:30 PM | ||
| Friday, 12 September | Gross Domestic Product | UK | 0.40% | 10:00 AM |
| Preliminary Consumer Sentiment | USA | 58.2 | 6:00 PM | |
| Preliminary Inflation Expectations | USA | 4.80% | 6:00 PM |
Technical Analysis and Forecast:
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
Following a 14% bearish correction since Mid-August, bitcoin is regaining bullish momentum as cryptocurrency bounced from the $107,000 support level breaking $113,000 again.
MACD shows a bullish crossover is in progress, supporting the upward movement. MACD bars crossed above the zero line as well, confirming the bullish momentum.
An important level to monitor is the historical and psychological resistance level of $114,000, which also coincides with the 30-day moving average. A strong breakout above this level is likely to push the price toward $118,000. However, watch out for any bearish candlestick formation at this level as it may push price down toward $109,000
Bitcoin Daily Chart
| Resistance | $117,378 – $118,120 | $119,286 – $119,320 | $121,049 – $121,240 |
| Support | $109,410 – $109,425 | $107,337 $107,500 | $105,214 – $105,326 |
Gold Technical Analysis
Gold surged above its previous record high and psychological level $3,500 after three failed attempts since May. Price action on the daily chart shows a strong upward momentum with a bullish gap recorded at the beginning of September.
Moving averages MA(5), MA(10), and MA(30) show a bullish alignment, supporting the uptrend. MACD supports the bullish trend as the indicator shows strong bullish momentum.
Key levels to monitor are the dynamic support levels represented by MA(10) and MA(30) currently around $3,450 and $3,400 respectively. A retest of these levels and bullish candle formation could trigger another upward movement toward $3,580 and potentially $3,600
Gold Daily Chart
| Resistance | $3,5,78 – $3,580 | $3,600 – $3,620 | $3,650 – $3,656 |
| Support | $3,511 – $3,515 | $3,465 – $3,477 | $3,375 – $3,404 |
Nasdaq Technical Analysis
Despite the decline in Nasdaq at the beginning of September, the index rebounded strongly and broke the previous resistance level 23,740. A short downward correction is possible from the current levels toward the dynamic support levels of moving averages MA(5), MA(10), and MA(30) as they converge on the daily chart.
MACD shows a bullish crossover being established, confirming the bullish bias. Additionally, moving averages also show a bullish crossover.
Daily close above 23,800 might lead to a push toward 24,000 level. Watch out for a strong drop below dynamic support levels as it may warn of further drop to the downside.
Nasdaq Daily Chart
| Resistance | 23,966 – 24,000 | 24,100 – 24,150 | 24,225 – 24,300 |
| Support | 23,330 – 23,345 | 22,959 – 23,000 | 22,699 – 22,742 |
EURUSD Technical Analysis
EURUSD has been consolidating since the beginning of August as it trades around the 1.1700 levels. All three moving averages MA(5), MA(10), and MA(30) are converging indicating no clear trend on the pair in the short term.
MACD also shows lack of directional bias on the pair on the daily chart. While the pair failed to break July highs, it has been showing some strength with higher lows since August. Mid-term bias is titled to the upside.
A break above 1.1750 on the daily chart could open the door for a retest of 1.1830 yearly high. However, falling below 1.1550 may trigger further declines toward 1.1400 psychological support level.
EURUSD Daily Chart
| Resistance | 1.1732 – 1.1745 | 1.1789 – 1.1800 | 1.1850 – 1.1871 |
| Support | 1.1596 – 1.1608 | 1.1528 – 1.1543 | 1.1393 – 1.1412 |
