Metals
![Weekly Market Recap and Forecast [4 July] US indices reach new all-time highs as the labor market strengthens, USD continues to decline](https://www.startrader-za.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/Weekly-Market-Recap-and-Forecast-4-July-US-indices-reach-new-all-time-highs-as-the-labor-market-strengthens-USD-continues-to-decline-1024x536.png)
Key Takeaways
- US indices hit new highs thanks to robust jobs data and optimism on U.S.–China trade talks.
- Oil prices recover following the recent sharp declines. Eyes on upcoming OPEC+ production increases .
- The Dollar Index falls to its lowest level since February 2022 as demand on the greenback diminishes.
- Bitcoin breaks $110,000 again as demand on high risk assets grows.
- Gold extended gains, and silver held firm benefiting from safe-haven flows and dollar weakness.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq close at record levels as trade negotiations advance
Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 hit record highs. The Nasdaq gained 1.2% reaching 22,892, while the S&P 500 rose 1.4% to 6,285 driven by strong macro conditions and tech stock enthusiasm.
A key catalyst for these gains was June’s positive jobs report, with 147,000 new jobs and steady 4.1% unemployment. Moderate wage growth eased inflation concerns, supporting potential Fed rate cuts by September.
The new U.S.-Vietnam trade deal also boosted sentiment by expanding tech and semiconductor cooperation. The U.S. will reduce tariffs on Vietnamese electronics, while Vietnam will import more American software and AI components, strengthening global supply chains and positioning Southeast Asia as a China alternative.
AI-related stocks led the rally, with Nvidia, AMD, and Microsoft posting gains. Nvidia maintained momentum after becoming the most valuable public company. The S&P 500’s record close indicated broad participation across financials, industrials, and consumer sectors.
Oil prices remained steady as traders await tariff paus deadline
Oil stabilized during the week and markets priced in OPEC+’s August production increase. Geopolitical premiums faded as traders focused on fundamentals. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 2.5% to $66.05 and Brent gained 3.38% reaching $68.23 a barrel.
Markets have absorbed the planned 411,000 bpd production hike despite mixed inventory signals.
U.S. production reached 13.47 million bpd in April. The July 6 OPEC+ meeting is crucial. Another 411,000 bpd increase is expected in August, contributing to 1.78 million bpd growth this year, likely keeping prices near current levels. Declining U.S. production from aging fields may absorb added volumes.
Gold posts solid weekly gains on fiscal uncertainty
Gold rose 1.8% during the week reaching $3,340 per ounce. The rally followed U.S. Congress approving a tax-cut and spending package that is expected to add $3.4 trillion to the national debt in the next 10 years, weakening the dollar and boosting safe-haven demand.
The U.S. dollar index fell for a second week, trading at three-year lows and making gold more attractive to foreign buyers. Concerns over July 9 tariffs and stalled trade talks positioned gold as a hedge against uncertainty.
Silver closed around t $36.84, showing resilience alongside gold. Despite sensitivity to economic activity, its safe-haven appeal kept prices near six-week highs.
Bitcoin sees strong weekly gains led by institutional inflows
Bitcoin rose 1.4%, trading between $105,000–110,000 by week’s end, just shy of its record $112,000 peak . Ethereum was up 2%, XRP gained a modest 1%. ETF flows are the dominant driver this week, with influxes into both Bitcoin and Ethereum products improving sentiment.
As institutional entry stabilizes prices and reinforces its role as a strategic rather than speculative asset, Bitcoin is gaining standing as a digital safe-haven, particularly as macro uncertainty rises.
Key Economic Data of the week
- Manufacturing PMI in China improved and came at 49.7, slightly higher than expectations of 49.6
- Gross Domestic Product in the UK grows 0.7% in line with expectations.
- ISM Manufacturing PMI in the US came slightly better than expectations (49.0 vs exceptions of 48.8)
- Inflation rises in Switzerland as CPI comes at 0.2%
- Non-farm Payroll in the US rose unexpectedly to 147K, and employment fell to 4.1%
Major Economic Calendar Events for the Upcoming Week
| Date | Metric | Country | Previous | Time [Dubai] |
| Monday, 7 July | Retail Sales m/m | Euro | 0.10% | 1:00 PM |
| Tuesday, 8 July | Interest Rate Decision | Australia | 3.85% | 8:30 AM |
| Ivey PMI | Canada | 48.9 | 6:00 PM | |
| Wednesday, 9 July | Interest Rate Decision | New Zealand | 3.25% | 6:00 AM |
| FOMC Meeting Minutes | USA | 10:00 PM | ||
| Thursday, 10 July | Producer Price Index (PPI) | Japan | 3.20% | 3:50 AM |
| Unemployment Claims | USA | 4:30 PM | ||
| Friday, 11 July | Gross Domestic Product GDP m/m | UK | -0.30% | 10:00 AM |
| Unemployment Rate | Canada | 7% | 4:30 PM | |
| Federal Budget Balance | USA | 10:00 PM |
Technical Analysis and Forecast:
EURUSD breaks 1.1800 psychological and historical resistance level
EURUSD shows a strong uptrend on the daily chart as the pair reached its highest level in 4 years. Price shows consistent higher highs and higher lows since early 2025 with no signs of reversal.
Moving Averages (5,10,30) show bullish alignment with wide spacing between the moving averages, confirming strong buying pressure.
MACD is also strongly bullish with MACD line well above the signal line.
Momentum is in favor of the bulls. As long as price stays above 1.1650, the uptrend remains intact with potential targets toward 1.1900. It’s important to keep an eye on the dynamic support moving average MA(30). A drop to this support with failure to close below it could push prices higher again.
EURUSD Daily Chart EURUSD
| Resistance | 1.1828 – 1.1835 | 1.1900 – 1.1912 | 1.1955 – 1.1962 |
| Support | 1.1687 – 1.1700 | 1.1638 – 1.1650 | 1.1560 – 1.1572 |
Bitcoin breaks $110,000 again and nears its all-time high
Despite recent consolidation, Bitcoin still shows strength as it nears its historical high.
Moving Averages MA (5,10,30) are almost converging, but showing mixed signals, with price currently above all of these averages.
Bullish momentum on MACD is building again. The MACD line has crossed above the signal line, with green bars expanding showing sustainability in the uptrend.
After a pullback from the recent highs on the daily chart, price is stabilizing and trying to resume upward momentum. Holding above the short-term MAs confirms strength. A break above $111,975 could lead to a new rally, but failure here could cause another test near $105,000–$106,000.
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Daily Chart
| Resistance | $110,675 – $111,000 | $11,092 – $111,230 | $112,000 – $112,038 |
| Support | $107,892 – $108,000 | $105,109 – $105,230 | $103,774 – $103,821 |
Nasdaq approaches 22,900 as buying momentum continues
Nasdaq continues it strong long-term uptrend after breaking previous all-time highs. Weekly candlesticks show buying pressure. Price has broken above the previous peak around 22,700–22,900, marking a new all-time high.
Moving Averages MA (5,10,30) show bullish alignment, with all moving averages sloping upward and price well above them.
MACD also confirms the bullish momentum as the MACD line is above signal line.
As long as the index holds above the 22,000–22,300 area, upside trend remains dominant. Next potential psychological target could be 23,000 or higher.
Nasdaq Weekly Chart（Nasdaq）
| Resistance | 22,879 – 22,921 | 23,000 – 23,121 | 23,250 – 23,331 |
| Support | 22,381 – 22,424 | 22,065 – 22,121 | 21,724 – 22,831 |
Gold shows resilience above $3,300 level
Gold has been fluctuating for the past two months, but still trading near its historical highs. The precious metal is still recording higher highs and higher lows., indicating the bullish trend is still intact.
Moving averages MA (5,10,30) are converging, showing no clear indication for the trend.
MACD is approaching the zero line upward, supports the continuation of the uptrend.
A break above $3,400 is likely to push prices higher towards the all-time high of $3,500. However, a drop below $3,250 and daily close below this level is a warning sign of more declines.
Gold (XAUUSD) Daily Chart（XAUUSD）
| Resistance | $3,394 – $3,405 | $3,451 – $3,462 | $3,499 – $3,508 |
| Support | $3,246 – $3,251 | $3,207 – $3,241 | $3,190 – $3,221 |
