Metals
Key Takeaways
- Dow Jones broke a new record high at 45,762 following Powell’s speech
- S&P500 reaches new record highs at 6,507 as investors expect a rate cut in September
- Nvidia reports Q2 earnings beat, and the stock revisits record highs
- Trump threatens 200% tariffs on China over rare-earth material exports
- Cryptocurrencies retreat after Ethereum broke 2021 high reaching $4,955
- US economy grew 3.3% in the second quarter of 2025, higher than previous estimates
- Trump said he fired Fed Governor Lisa Cook over mortgage fraud accusations
The US economy grew 3.3% in the second quarter of 2025
The upward revision of U.S. Q2 GDP to 3.3% annualized provided a major boost to investor sentiment during the week. The stronger-than-expected growth figure reinforced the view that the U.S. economy remains highly resilient despite earlier concerns over tariffs, and global slowdown risks.
This revision acted as a catalyst for the stock market. The S&P 500 climbed above 6,500 for the first time on Thursday, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged past 45,732, Investors interpreted the GDP upgrade as assurance that corporate earnings could remain solid in the second half of the year, particularly in cyclical sectors like industrials and financials, which are directly tied to economic growth.
The Nasdaq 100 also rose following the news as it broke above 23,700. While tech shares were supported by the improved macro backdrop, some profit-taking occurred in mega-cap names following their strong earnings season.
It’s important to note that any disappointment in upcoming data, such as weaker job numbers, stubborn inflation, or an unexpected escalation in trade tensions, could quickly unwind the recent gains.
Nvidia beats expectations again with its earnings and revenues
Nvidia once again reported stronger-than-expected quarterly earnings, driven by surging demand for AI-related semiconductors. Revenue came in at nearly $46.74 billion, slightly above $46.06 billion estimated. Following the earnings release, Nvidia’s stock dropped 3% in after-hours trading, but recovered on Thursday reclaiming the $180 price level.
At the same time, political headlines caused volatility into broader U.S. markets. President Donald Trump announced the firing of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. The decision raised fresh concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, as markets viewed the move as part of Trump’s push for a more dovish Fed.
Adding to the market turbulence, Trump threatened to impose 200% tariffs on Chinese rare earth material exports. Rare earths are critical for a wide range of industries, from semiconductors and electric vehicles to defense systems. Investors assessed the potential disruption to supply chains. Companies like Tesla and other clean energy manufacturers were especially vulnerable, given their reliance on these materials.
Ethereum breaks 2021 record highs and reaches $4,955
The crypto market experienced a strong rebound during the week, thanks to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech. Powell struck a notably dovish tone, emphasizing that while inflation progress has slowed, the central bank is prepared to provide flexibility and avoid overtightening after the NFP data that came out on 1 August. Markets interpreted this as an early signal that a September rate cut is now more likely.
Lower interest rates typically reduce the appeal of the U.S. dollar and Treasuries, while boosting demand for riskier, high-growth assets such as cryptocurrencies.
Ether responded positively to the news and jumped to a new record high of $4,955 breaking the previous record high in 2021. Another catalyst for these spikes was on-chain data which showed a sharp uptick in active addresses and smart contract activity, hinting at growing real-world utility through DeFi and tokenization. This combination of regulatory optimism and strong network fundamentals amplified Ethereum’s gains beyond Bitcoin’s.
This movement reinforced the idea that in 2025, cryptocurrencies remain highly sensitive to U.S. monetary policy, behaving less like isolated digital assets and more like high-risk, high-reward plays in the global financial ecosystem.
Small-cap stocks rise as expectations of a rate cut increases
The recent dynamics in the equity market have drawn significant attention, with small-cap stocks starting to outperform mega-cap tech names for the first time in months. The Russell 2000 posted solid gains relative to the Nasdaq following Powell’s speech as it rose by 3.36% to 2,361 , suggesting that investors are broadening their exposure beyond the AI-driven tech trade.
This shift could in fact signal improving confidence in the domestic U.S. economy, as small caps are largely more sensitive to local demand and interest rate conditions.
Key Economic Data of the week
- New Zealand retail sales numbers grew 0.5% in the second quarter of 2025
- German IFO business climate index rose to 89.0, an improvement on the previous reading
- New home sales in the US declined to 652K in July, but higher than market expectations of 635K
- Monthly durable goods orders in the US recovered slightly, but still dropped 2.8%
- Preliminary US GDP numbers for the second quarter showed the economy expanding 3.3%, higher than previous estimates
- Australian CPI rose to 2.8% year-over-year in the month of July
- Weekly unemployment claims in the US fell to 229K, below market expectations
Major Economic Calendar Events for the Upcoming Week
| Date | Metric | Country | Previous | Time [Dubai] |
| Monday, 1 September | Unemployment Rate | Euro | 6.20% | 1:00 PM |
| Tuesday, 2 September | ISM Manufacturing PMI | USA | 48 | 6:00 PM |
| Wednesday, 3 September | Gross Domestic Product | Australia | 0.20% | 5:30 AM |
| Wednesday, 3 September | Producer Price Index m/m | Euro | 0.80% | 1:00 PM |
| Wednesday, 3 September | JOLTS Job Openings | USA | 7.44m | 6:00 PM |
| Thursday, 4 September | Consumer Price Index m/m | Switzerland | 0.00% | 10:30 AM |
| Thursday, 4 September | ADP Non-Farm Employment Change | USA | 104K | 4:15 PM |
| Thursday, 4 September | ISM Services PMI | USA | 50.1 | 6:00 PM |
| Friday, 5 September | Retail Sales m/m | UK | 0.90% | 10:00 AM |
| Friday, 5 September | Unemployment Rate | Canada | 6.90% | 4:30 PM |
| Friday, 5 September | Non-Farm Payrolls | USA | 73K | 4:30 PM |
| Friday, 5 September | Unemployment Rate | USA | 4.20% | 4:30 PM |
Technical Analysis and Forecast:
Ether shows strengths as it reached a new all-time high
Ether is showing a solid uptrend on the daily chart as it continues to create higher highs and higher lows. Price recently reached a new all-time high, after which the cryptocurrency corrected downward in a healthy bearish pullback.
Moving averages are aligned bullishly. A possible bearish crossover of moving average MA(5) with MA(10) is building up. However, price is still trading above the 30-period moving average, indicating the uptrend is still ongoing.
MACD warns of a possible drop down further in price. If price falls to the 30-day moving average and closes above, the uptrend is likely to continue. A daily close below $4,000 is a warning signal for more declines.
Ether Daily Chart
| Resistance | $4,658 – $4,721 | $4,950 – $4,955 | $5,000 – $5,050 |
| Support | $4,300 – $4,310 | $4,054 – $4,100 | $3,810 – $3,876 |
Strong uptrend continues on the Dow Jones
Dow Jones shows a strong uptrend on the daily chart as the index continues to form higher highs and higher lows.
All three moving averages MA(5), MA(10), and MA(30) are trending upward and aligned in bullish order. Price is also above all moving averages, showing strong momentum.
MACD is currently in bullish territory, and the lines are diverging upward, which indicates that the bullish momentum is intact.
The overall view is still strongly bullish as long as the index holds above 45,000. A breakout above 46,000 could trigger another rally.
Dow Jones Daily Chart
| Resistance | 45,763 – 45,821 | 46,000 – 46,120 | 46,300 – 46,320 |
| Support | 45,100 – 45,150 | 44,570 – 44,600 | 44,325 – 44,420 |
Gold pushes above $3,400 as the US dollar weakens
old has been gradually trending higher despite the long consolidation on the daily chart. Current structure shows higher lows.
The 5-day and 10-day moving averages are sloping upward, crossing above the 30-day moving average, which shows a bullish signal. Price is well-supported by short-term averages.
MACD is currently positive and momentum is strengthening.
The Outlook for gold prices is bullish. A clean break above $3,500 would open the door to $3,600. As long as it holds above 3,350, buyers remain in control.
Gold Daily Chart
| Resistance | $3,439 – $3,446 | $3,476 – $3,492 | $3,500 – $3,505 |
| Support | $3,371 – $3,395 | $3,320 – $3,325 | $3,256 – $3,283 |
The British Pound is set to resume its uptrend against the US dollar
GBPUSD has rebounded from the 1.3139 low and is consolidating between 1.3450 – 1.3600. The longer-term trend is still bullish after forming the double bottom at 1.3140
Moving averages MA (5, 10, 30) are mostly flat, showing indecision. Price is currently sitting just above the 30-day moving average, which acts as immediate support.
MACD shows momentum is weak. Signal line crossover hints at a possible bullish continuation, but no strong confirmation yet.
The overall Outlook is still neutral to slightly bullish as long as the pair stays above 1.3400. A break below this level could reopen downside momentum to 1.3139.
GBPUSD Daily Chart
| Resistance | 1.3594 – 1.3621 | 1.3683 – 1.3695 | 1.3790 – 1.3810 |
| Support | 1.3390 – 1.3405 | 1.3295 – 1.3305 | 1.3120 – 1.3150 |
