Metals
Key Takeaways
- Stronger U.S. economic data pulled back rate cut expectations.
- The US dollar rallied on revised GDP and durable goods numbers, which pressured equity sentiment.
- Risk assets faced headwinds. Small caps and stock‐specific stories gained attention
- Yield curve shifts signaled changing sentiment. The short end of the U.S. Treasury curve saw yields drop more than the long end, flattening the yield curve.
- Concentration risk in tech intensified. A handful of mega-cap tech names continued to carry much of the market’s gains.
- Volatility suppressed but risks elevated. The VIX and other volatility indicators remained low, suggesting complacency.
- Gold reached a new record high at $3,791. Silver breaks above $45 per ounce.
U.S. Equities & Market Sentiment
U.S. stocks entered the week on a strong note thanks to residual enthusiasm from the Fed’s earlier rate cut and ongoing strength in AI/tech deals. For example, Nvidia’s partnership with OpenAI continued to add momentum to big tech names and lifted indices. That said, as the week progressed, stronger economic prints, particularly upward revisions to Q2 GDP at 3.8% annualized, raised doubts about the extent and timing of further cuts, injecting volatility and reducing some speculative upside. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq briefly hit fresh highs before pulling back slightly, while breadth narrowed as many stocks lagged behind the mega-cap leaders.
Small‐cap action stood out in the weaker macro backdrop. The Russell 2000 showed relative resilience in pre-market activity toward the end of the week, suggesting investors hunting for yield and rotation away from overbought large caps. Meanwhile, the VIX remained subdued, signaling ongoing complacency, but that also leaves markets vulnerable to sudden shifts if data surprises.
Commodities & Precious Metals
Gold eased modestly in the face of a stronger dollar, with the spot price trading around $3,741.21 an ounce after reaching a new record high at $3,791. Silver broke above $45, a critical psychological level, but later fell to $44.96 as industrial demand and real yield pressures weighed more heavily.
Part of gold’s decline is attributable to firmer nominal yields and the dollar’s rebound, which raised the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. But gold’s strength in the week is still notable, especially given political uncertainty and trade tensions.
Forex and Interest Rate Expectations
The U.S. dollar regained strength after a series of robust data releases. The dollar index rose about 0.6%, supported by upward surprises in GDP, durable goods, inventories, and more resilient inflation expectations. That dollar appreciation made commodities and other non-USD assets more expensive for foreign holders, putting additional pressures on gold and emerging market currencies.
Markets dialed back their expectations for aggressive rate cuts. While earlier in the week a 25 bp Fed cut in October was nearly fully priced in, stronger economic prints reduced that conviction, pushing the probability estimate lower as participants reassessed the balance between growth and inflation headwinds.
FX pairs saw modest shifts. The euro slid against the dollar, trading around $1.1665, while USD/JPY held near 150, reflecting some underlying support for the yen but also the dollar’s renewed strength.
Key Economic Data of the week
- Flash Manufacturing PMI in the Euro zone falls to 49.5 from 50.7
- Flash Services PMI in the Euro zone rises to 51.4 from 50.5
- Flash Manufacturing PMI in the US drops to 52.0 from 53.0
- Flash Services PMI in the US drops to 53.9 from 54.5
- Australian CPI numbers come higher than expectations (3.0% compared to 2.9% expected)
- Swiss Central Bank keeps interest rates unchanged at 0.00% in line with expectations
- US revised GDP numbers show a higher-than-expected growth of 3.8%
Major Economic Calendar Events for the Upcoming Week
| Date | Metric | Country | Previous | Time [Dubai] |
| Monday, 29 September | Pending Home Sales m/m | USA | -0.40% | 6:00 PM |
| Tuesday, 30 September | Interest Rate Decision | Australia | 3.70% | 8:30 AM |
| Tuesday, 30 September | JOLTS Job Openings | USA | 7.18m | 6:00 PM |
| Tuesday, 30 September | CB Consumer Confidence | USA | 97.4 | 6:00 PM |
| Wednesday, 1 October | ADP Non-Farm Employment Change | USA | 54K | 4:15 PM |
| Wednesday, 1 October | ISM Manufacturing PMI | USA | 48.7 | 6:00 PM |
| Thursday, 2 October | Consumer Price Index | Switzerland | -0.10% | 10:30 AM |
| Thursday, 2 October | Unemployment Claims | USA | 4:30 PM | |
| Friday, 3 October | Non-Farm Employment Change | USA | 22K | 4:30 PM |
| Friday, 3 October | Unemployment Rate | USA | 4.30% | 4:30 PM |
Technical Analysis and Forecast:
EURUSD Technical Analysis
After a steady uptrend from June lows (1.1064) to highs near 1.1917, EURUSD is currently correcting lower.
Price is testing the 30-day moving average as support, while short-term moving averages (5 & 10) are turning bearish, showing weakness. MACD recently crossed bearish below the signal line with red histogram bars, suggesting momentum is shifting down.
Short term trend on the pair is bearish unless price reclaims 1.1800.
EURUSD Daily Chart
| Resistance | 1.1819 – 1.1824 | 1.1918 – 1.1924 | 1.2000 – 1.2010 |
| Support | 1.1610 – 1.1620 | 1.1528 – 1.1535 | 1.1424 – 1.1430 |
Silver Technical Analysis
Silver prices continue to go up as the precious metal gets closer to its all-time high from 2011. Price action is showing clear higher highs and higher lows.
Silver broke an important psychological resistance level at $45.00. Moving averages MA(5), MA(10), and MA(30) are aligned positively, indicating uptrend is still intact.
The 30-day moving average is expected to act as a dynamic support, holding price above. Failure to lose below MA(30) could push prices to new highs.
Silver Daily Chart
| Resistance | $45.50 – $45.60 | $46.00 – $46.12 | $46.50 – $46.55 |
| Support | $43.66 – $43.71 | $42.69 – $42.75 | $41.13 – $41.20 |
Nasdaq Technical Analysis
Nasdaq is still in a strong uptrend from 21,360 in June to 24,800 in September. Recent candles show rejection at highs.
Price is still bullish overall (price above 30-day moving average), but moving averages MA(5) and MA(10) MA are flattening, showing momentum cooling.
MACD is bullish but histogram is shrinking, suggesting loss of momentum.
Bias is bullish long-term, but vulnerable to a pullback if support 24,200 breaks.
Nasdaq Daily Chart
| Resistance | 24,778 – 24,291 | 24,950 – 25,000 | 25,000 – 25050 |
| Support | 24,189 – 24,205 | 23,994 – 24,015 | 23,675 – 23,721 |
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
The trend on bitcoin is sideways-to-bearish. After peaking at $124,492 in early September, BTC has been in correction mode, now near $109,200. Short-term moving averages MA(5) and MA(10) are trending below price, signaling continued bearish pressure. The 30-day moving average is being tested.
MACD is showing bearish crossover with widening red histogram, showing strong downside momentum.
Bias: Bearish short-term; possible bounce from $107,000 support, but risk remains downside unless above $115,000.
Bitcoin Daily Chart
| Resistance | $114,100 – $114,150 | $117,923 – $118,045 | $121,083 – $121,135 |
| Support | $107,472 – $107,525 | $105,359 – $105,420 | $101,429 – $101,500 |
