Metals
Key Takeaways
- Oil plummets more than 13% as tensions in the Middle East calm following ceasefire announcement
- Gold drops 1.5% as market sentiment improves and geopolitical tensions ease
- Equities rebounded, with the S&P 500 approaching record highs
- Nvidia breaks a new all-time high at $154.31 a share
- The U.S. dollar weakened as global risk sentiment improved.
Brent falls more than $11 and drops below $66 a barrel
Oil prices fell sharply during the week, with Brent losing more than 13% to $66.90/barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropping 14% to $64.37. This sharp decline followed the ceasefire agreement brokered by U.S. President Donald Trump, which eased supply disruption concerns.
Early week prices remained high as markets priced in potential Strait of Hormuz disruptions. However, diplomatic de-escalation prompted traders to unwind positions as physical oil flows remained unaffected.
Fundamentals provided some support, with EIA reporting an unexpected 5.8 million barrel inventory drawdown and highest gasoline demand since December 2021, indicating resilient consumer demand despite fading geopolitical risks.
Outlook remains geopolitically sensitive. Brent could exceed $100 if Hormuz faces closure threats. Markets now focus on OPEC+ signals, inventory data, and Middle East developments.
Gold falls below $3,300 temporarily before rebounding slightly
Gold prices fell 2.5% as Middle East tensions eased and rate cut expectations from the Fed were adjusted. After spiking to $3,440 earlier in the month, prices settled around $3,330 level following the ceasefire that reduced safe-haven demand.
The initial gold rally stemmed from geopolitical uncertainty, but diplomatic progress diminished the need for safe-haven assets. This coincided with strengthening equities and a softening dollar, pressuring gold prices.
The Fed’s hawkish stance contributed to gold’s decline. With rates held at 4.25–4.50% and continued inflation concerns from tariffs and energy costs, the Fed signaled no acceleration in rate cuts. This higher-rate environment increased gold’s opportunity cost, moderating institutional demand as traders shifted to higher-yielding assets.
Despite this weekly decline, gold maintains its longer-term uptrend, supported by macro uncertainties, inflation, and central bank buying.
US indices rose fueled by easing geopolitical tensions
U.S. stocks showed strong performance during the week as sentiment improves in the market. The S&P 500 broke 6,100 critical level. Tech-heavy Nasdaq advanced on AI strength, while the Dow remained just below recent highs after breaking 43,000 level. Nasdaq rose more than 4% during the week and broke the level 22,300.
The Fed maintained its cautious stance without signaling rate cuts or tightening. Discussions on easing bank leverage requirements boosted financial stocks
Growth stocks performed well amid stable bond yields and falling commodity prices. However, traders remain alert to upcoming inflation, employment, and earnings data that could influence Fed policy and market momentum for H2 2025.
Nvidia reclaims title of the most valuable company in the world
Nvidia shares surged over 4% on June 25, closing at an all-time high of $154.31, pushing the market cap to $3.77 trillion making it the world’s most valuable company again by overtaking Microsoft and Apple. This performance marked a remarkable rebound, with gains of approximately 60% from its April low of $94 and about 15% year-to-date
Key Economic Data of the week
- Flash manufacturing and services PMI come in line with expectations of 49.4 and 50.0 respectively.
- UK’s flash manufacturing and services PMI are slightly higher than expectations at 47.7 and 51.3 respectively
- Flash manufacturing and services PMI are slightly better than expected at 52.0 and 53.1 respectively
- Canada’s CPI ticks higher in May, reaching 2.6% on yearly basis.
- Australian CPI numbers declined slightly in May to 2.1%
Major Economic Calendar Events for the Upcoming Week
| Date | Metric | Country | Previous | Time [Dubai] |
| Monday, 30 June | Final Gross Domestic Product (GDP) | q/q | UK | 0.70% | 10:00 AM |
| Tuesday, 1 July | ISM Manufacturing PMI | USA | 48.5 | 6:00 PM |
| JOLTS Job Openings | USA | 7.39m | 6:00 PM | |
| Wednesday, 2 July | Retail Sales m/m | Australia | -0.10% | 5:30 AM |
| ADP Non-Farm Employment Change | USA | 37K | 4:15 PM | |
| Thursday, 3 July | Consumer Price Index (CPI) | y/y | Switzerland | 0.10% | 10:30 AM |
| Non-Farm Payroll | USA | 139K | 4:30 PM | |
| Unemployment Rate | USA | 4.20% | 4:30 PM | |
| ISM Services PMI | USA | 49.9 | 6:00 PM | |
| Friday, 4 July | Producer Price Index | Euro | -2.20% | 1:00 PM |
Technical Analysis and Forecast:
US indices jumped during the week as the uptrend maintains its strength. The daily chart on Nasdaq shows higher highs and higher lows as the index broke its historical high. Moving averages MA(5), MA(10), and MA(30) are slopping upward, confirming the uptrend.
Price is likely to find resistance around the 22,500 level due to its significance as a historical and psychological level. A correction towards 22,000 support level or MA(30) dynamic support might push prices higher. As long as the index remains above 20,800, the uptrend remained intact.
Nasdaq Daily Chart
| Resistance | 22,800 – 22,830 | 22,900 – 22,950 | 23,000 – 23,144 |
| Support | 22,216 – 22,180 | 21,560 – 21,587 | 21,338 – 21,454 |
Following a bearish correction in May, EURUSD regained its strength and it’s now continuing the mid-term uptrend. With all moving averages MA(5), MA(10), and MA(30) slopping upward, the pair is expected to reach new highs.
An important support level to monitor is 1.1450. A decline to this level followed by a bullish reversal candlestick could signal a spike on the pair pushing toward 1.1800
MACD shows the uptrend is still healthy and hasn’t reached overbought terrirtory.
EURUSD Daily Chart
| Resistance | 1.1750 – 1.1775 | 1.1820 – 1.1834 | 1.1900 – 1.1936 |
| Support | 1.1635 – 1.1642 | 1.1456 – 1.1465 | 1.1379 – 1.1388 |
Nvidia stock broke out of a rising wedge pattern and hit intraday highs of about $154.98, with strong momentum but also possible overbought conditions.
The uptrend on the daily chart remains healthy. If price faces resistance at $155 level and drops, it’s likely to reach $146 before continuing the uptrend. Price is also likely to find support at the dynamic support level of 30-period moving average around $140 levels. A daily close below this level could push prices lower to $128 levels.
Nvidia Daily Chart
| Resistance | $155.20 – $156.00 | $157.00 – $157.26 | $160.00 – $160.50 |
| Support | $142.10 – $140.82 | $138.27 – $139.94 | $133.25 – $132.79 |
Gold prices show indecisiveness on the daily chart with moving averages MA(5), MA(10), and MA(30) all converging, indicating fluctuation in the price. A bearish crossover could bring prices down to $3,240. However, the uptrend remains intact.
Price formed a double top formation around $3,450 level. Failure to break this resistance and bearish reversal candlesticks could push prices lower again. However, a break and closure above this resistance opens the door for more upward movement toward $3,500 all-time high.
Gold (XAUUSD) Daily Chart
| Resistance | $3,397 – $3,402 | $3,441 – $3,450 | $3,488 – $3,500 |
| Support | $3,300 – $3,295 | $3,243 – $3,250 | $3,122 – $3,130 |
