Metals
Key Takeaways
- The U.S. Stock market continues to break new highs, feuld by trade deal optimism
- Japan and the U.S. Reach a trade deal that includes a 15% tariff on Japanese exports to the states
- Bitcoin retreats after Trump signed the GENIUS act, and Ether breaks above $3,800
- Gold fails to close above $3,400. Silver breaks above $39.50, highest level since 2011
- U.S. dollar drops against major currencies. The dollar index loses 1% during the week
Nasdaq and S&P500 break new records
Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq extended their record-breaking streaks during the week, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged slightly. The S&P500 was up more than 1.3%, breaking above 6,386, a new record for the index. Nasdaq gained around 1% reaching 23,295. Dow Jones inched closer to its February highs as the index rose more than 1% surpassing 45,000 psychological levels.
Investor sentiment remained broadly optimistic, with nearly 80% of S&P 500 companies beating earnings estimates in the second quarter of 2025, and continued trade optimism around U.S.–Japan and EU negotiations helped counterbalance tariff fears. Evidence of resilience across large‑cap tech and continued soft‐landing sentiment helped drive this exceptional weekly run.
U.S. Japan Trade deal
On July 23, the United States and Japan finalized a trade agreement that helped to de-escalate tariff pressures: automobiles and other Japanese goods exports to the U.S. will now face a 15% tariff, down from previously threatened levels of up to 27.5%. In return, Japan committed to a $550 billion investment package in key U.S. Industries, including semiconductors, AI, and shipbuilding over the coming years. The deal caused a sharp rally in global auto stocks, with Japan’s Nikkei index jumping 3.5% in one day.
Japanese carmakers were the biggest beneficiaries of the trade deal, Toyota shares surged over 14%, Honda jumped more than 11%, and Mazda gained around 17% as investors anticipated a sharp improvement in export competitiveness and profit margins
Bitcoin retreats after breaking new highs, Ether jumps above $3,800
After breaking a new record above $123,000 on 14 July, Bitcoin traded in the $115,000–$120,000 range during the week. The broader crypto market cap surpassed $4 trillion for the first time on July 18, reflecting strong inflows and renewed optimism surrounding U.S. crypto legislation. ADA fell more than 7% after breaking above 0.9 during the week.
On Monday, 21 July, Ether broke above $3,800 for the first time since January, but retreated since. However, cryptocurrencies stayed above $3,500, leading to other alternative coins.
XRP saw a decline of more than 11%, giving away 50% of July gains.
As of July 25, the Altcoin Season Index dropped to 38, indicating Bitcoin dominance and signaling that fewer than half of altcoins are outperforming BTC—even amid recent gains in ETH and XRP .
Progress on the Clarity Act in the U.S. The Senate, may anchor future capital flows into altcoins outside Bitcoin. It’s important to keep an eye on broader economic data and Fed commentary ahead of FOMC meeting (July 29–30), which could sway risk sentiment across crypto and traditional markets alike.
USD drops against major currencies
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) declined from about 98.36 on July 21 to 97.51 by the end of the week, a drop of around 0.85% . The Japanese yen gained 1.1% against the dollar, reflecting increased demand for safer assets. USDJPY dropped to 147.20.
EURUSD jumped 1.2% to 1.1752 after two weeks of decline. The Sterling Pound jumped 1.3% against the dollar before retreating below 1.3500 levels.
Gold started the week strong, reaching a high of $3,438 before losing $80 to $3,357 per ounce. Silver, on the other hand, had a positive week rising 2.37% as the precious metal revisited $39.50 levels on Wednesday 23 July.
Key Economic Data of the week
- Consumer Price Index reading dropped to 0.5% in New Zealand on a quarterly basis
- Existing home sales in the U.S. Drop to 3.93m, lower than expectations
- Retail sales in Canada drop -1.1%, lower than expectations
- Retail sales in the UK come at 0.9%, less than expectations
Major Economic Calendar Events for the Upcoming Week
| Date | Metric | Country | Previous | Time [Dubai] |
| Monday, 28 July | CBI Realized Sales | UK | -46 | 2:00 PM |
| Tuesday, 29 July | JOLTS Job Openings | USA | 7.77m | 6:00 PM |
| Wednesday, 30 July | Consumer Price Index (CPI) | y/y | Australia | 2.10% | 5:30 AM |
| ADP Non-Farm Employment Change | USA | -33K | 4:15 PM | |
| Advance GDP q/q | USA | -0.50% | 4:30 PM | |
| Interest Rate Decision | Canada | 2.75% | 4:45 PM | |
| Federal Funds Rate | USA | 4.50% | 10:00 PM | |
| Thursday, 31 July | Interest Rate Decision | Japan | 0.50% | Tentative |
| Gross Domestic Product GDP m/m | Canada | -0.10% | 4:30 PM | |
| Core PCE Price Index m/m | USA | 0.20% | 4:30 PM | |
| Friday, 1 August | Non-Farm Employment Change | USA | 147K | 4:30 PM |
| ISM Manufacturing PMI | USA | 49 | 6:00 PM |
Technical Analysis and Forecast:
Ether breaks above $3,800 before correcting downward
Ethereum is trading inside an uptrend channel formed since late April. Price has pulled back from the recent top near $3,850. A major support level during this movement is $3,580. Candlestick formations and price action at the $3,800–$3,850 range shows buyer exhaustion.
Moving average MA(5) is sloping downward crossing below MA(10), which shows early signs of weakness in the short term. Moving average MA(30) is still trending up, currently far below price, indicating that trend is still intact.
MACD indicates momentum loss and potential for a short-term correction or sideways movement.
Overall, Ether is in short-term correction within a long-term bullish structure. Watch for bullish reaction at $3,500–$3,370 zone. A break below $3,370 may lead to deeper retracement toward $3,100–$3,000.
Ether (ETHUSD) Daily Chart
| Resistance | $3,778 – $3,791 | $3,862 – $3,874 | $3,900 – $3,920 |
| Support | $3,500 – $3,508 | $3,380 – $3,391 | $3,300 – $3,312 |
Nasdaq breaks a new high above 23,295
Nasdaq is moving near all-time highs with reduced volatility. Current candles show narrow real bodies and small wicks, suggesting consolidation.
Moving average MA(30) is in a solid uptrend, acting as trailing support around 22,200.
MACD suggests momentum exhaustion but no clear bearish reversal yet.
Nasdaq is still bullish. A pullback toward 22,700–22,200 would be healthy retracement and price is likely to bounce from these levels. A close above 23,400 would invalidate consolidation and suggest bullish continuation.
Nasdaq Daily Chart
| Resistance | 23,295 – 23,300 | 23,405 – 23,412 | 23,517 – 23,525 |
| Support | 22,938 – 23,013 | 23,820 – 23,835 | 22,633 – 22,650 |
EURUSD gains more than 1% on weaker dollar
The Euro continues to rise against the US dollar as it nears psychological level 1.1800. Daily candlesticks broke above three moving averages (MA5), MA(10), and MA(30), suggesting bullish momentum.
A bullish crossover on moving averages also supports the uptrend.
MACD is turning bullish as the uptrend on the pair resumes following the bearish correction in the past two weeks.
A break above 1.1840 may open the door for more gains toward 1.1900 and 1.2000 crucial psychological level. However, a weekly close below 1.1558 is considered negative and may cause more sharp declines on the pair.
EURUSD Daily Chart
| Resistance | 1.1800 – 1.1832 | 1.1909 – 1.1920 | 1.2000 – 1.2027 |
| Support | 1.1557 – 1.1572 | 1.1445 – 1.1456 | 1.1208 – 1.1226 |
Gold uptrend slows down near all-time highs
Gold has been moving in a range between $3,120 and $3,500 since April. Recent move rejected from $3,450–$3,500, forming a potential lower high.
Price is now testing the 30-period moving average near $3,340–$3,350. Lower highs and flat lows suggest formation of a descending triangle, possibly bearish indication.
Moving averages MA(5) and MA(10) are sloping down, acting as short-term resistance. If price closes below all short-term moving averages, this indicates short-term bearish sentiment.
Breakdown below $3,315 on gold could lead to acceleration toward $3,150–$3,120 levels. Buyers must reclaim $3,420–$3,450 to shift bias back upward.
Gold (XAUUSD) Daily Chart
| Resistance | $3,423 – $3,436 | $3,450 – $3,457 | $3,500 – $3,506 |
| Support | $3,242 – $3,250 | $3,182 – $3,191 | $3,122 – $3,134 |
