Metals
Key Takeaways
- Precious-metals rally reversed sharply as gold and silver fall mid-week amid profit-taking and a stronger U.S. dollar.
- Q3 earnings season kicked in with major companies reporting strong results.
- Apple hit a new all-time high at $265 on strong iPhone 17 sales, boosting tech sentiment and U.S. equities.
- U.S. stock markets advanced, thanks to earnings optimism and easing concerns on trade tariffs with China.
- U.S. dollar showed signs of strength, pressuring major currency pairs and feeding into commodities weakness.
- Crypto markets gained modestly as risk-sentiment improved and institutional flows resumed.
Gold falls to $4,000 levels. Silver drops 12% from record highs.
Precious metals experienced a dramatic reversal this week. After having recently touched all-time highs. Gold dropped more than 5% on Tuesday 21 October, dipping from $4,380 record high to around $4,080. On Wednesday, the precious metal dropped further to $4,004 before settling at around $4,090. Silver fell even further, down 7% in a single session on Tuesday to $47.89 per ounce after having reached a record high near $54.47 on 17 October.
The pullback was driven by a stronger U.S. dollar, profit-taking, and signs of easing geopolitical and trade tensions that had underpinned the earlier surge. Moving forward, precious metals will remain sensitive to the dollar moves, inflation and employment numbers, and any policy or trade surprises.
Apple reaches a new record high and nears $4 trillion valuation
Q3 earnings season kicked in with several large-cap companies reporting and many more looming. Among individual companies, Apple stood out as the stock rose 4% on Monday 20 October, closing at $262.24 and hitting an intraday high near $264.38. The surge was linked to strong early iPhone 17 launch sales in the U.S. and China, 14% higher than the iPhone 16 in the same period.
U.S. Stock Market Continue to reach record levels
U.S. equities started the week with strong momentum. On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped nearly to 46,756, while the S&P 500 gained 0.8% and the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.92%. Tech and AI names powered much of the advance, with Apple’s record and strong iPhone 17 sales playing a key role. Still, sentiment remained tied to inflation data, trade risks, and the ongoing delay in certain U.S. economic releases due to the government shutdown.
Following a mid-week correction, US indices continued to push higher with the Nasdaq reaching a new record high on Friday, and Dow Jones inching closer to its recent record of 47,131
Tech and AI companies are still pulling much of the weight, which may raise concerns for how sustainable this market movement is. If leadership remains concentrated in a handful of mega-cap tech stocks but broader participation remains weak, then the rally may lack depth.
The US Dollar Gains Momentum Against Major Currencies
In the Forex market, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) edged higher, breaking above key resistance of 99.00, hinting at possible renewed dollar strength. The stronger dollar weighed on EUR/USD, GBP/USD and commodity-linked currencies, while USD/JPY remained elevated above 150 and displayed relative resilience. Low volatility in data releases this week meant traders focused on trade and tariff headlines, though the dollar’s bounce fed into pressure on dollar-priced assets like gold and silver.
Oil Prices Jump as the US Sanctions Russian Oil Companies
Oil prices rallied sharply during week, reversing earlier weakness. Brent rose more than 7% to around $65.71 per barrel, and the U.S. West-Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed about 8% to roughly $62 levels after the news of US sanctions on Russian oil companies. The jump marked the biggest daily gain for both benchmarks since mid-June, signalling that supply fears were once again back in play.
The sanctions announced by the U.S. Treasury on October 22 targeted Rosneft and Lukoil, two of Russia’s largest oil producers and exporters. Together, they account for a significant chunk of Russian output and substantial refining capacity. The U.S. move includes asset freezes and business prohibitions, and the threat of secondary sanctions against buyers of Russian crude.
Traders now will need to monitor how OPEC+ respond in terms of production adjustments. Otherwise, prices could test higher levels, around $70 for Brent But if substitutes appear and demand softens, the rally could stall.
Key Economic Data of the week
- New Zealand inflation rises to 1.0% in Q3, higher than expectations of 0.8%
- China keeps benchmark lending rates unchanged at 3% for the 1-year rate and 3.5% for the 5-year rate
- Industrial production in China grew by 6.5% on a yearly basis in September
- Inflation in Canada rises slightly to 2.7% in September on a yearly basis, up from 2.5% in August
- The UK’s consumer price index remains at 3.8% in September, defying expectations of a rise to 4%
Major Economic Calendar Events for the Upcoming Week
| Date | Metric | Country | Previous | Time [Dubai] |
| Monday, 27 October | Durable Goods Orders m/m | USA | 2.90% | Tentative |
| Tuesday, 28 October | Richmond Manufacturing Index | USA | -17 | 6:00 PM |
| Tuesday, 28 October | CB Consumer Confidence | USA | 94.2 | Tentative |
| Wednesday, 29 October | Consumer Price Index y/y | Australia | 3.00% | 4:30 AM |
| Wednesday, 29 October | Interest Rate Decision | Canada | 2.50% | 5:45 PM |
| Wednesday, 29 October | Federal Funds Rate | USA | 4.25% | 10:00 PM |
| Thursday, 30 October | Interest Rate Decision | Japan | 0.50% | Tentative |
| Thursday, 30 October | Advance GDP | USA | 3.80% | Tentative |
| Thursday, 30 October | Interest Rate Decision | Euro | 2.15% | 5:15 PM |
| Friday, 31 October | Consumer Price Index | Japan | 2.50% | 3:30 AM |
| Friday, 31 October | Gross Domestic Product m/m | Canada | 0.20% | 4:30 PM |
| Friday, 31 October | Personal Consumption Expenditure | USA | 0.20% | Tentative |
Technical Analysis and Forecast:
EURUSD Technical Analysis
EURUSD continues to show signs of weakness, trading in a downtrend after failing to sustain the momentum above the 1.19 level. The recent candles reflect a lack of conviction from buyers, with narrow price ranges and choppy movement. The price is attempting to form a short-term consolidation base. However, it remains below key short-term moving averages (MA5 and MA10) and is currently struggling beneath the 30-day moving average, which continues to act as dynamic resistance.
Momentum indicators also support the bearish outlook. The MACD has crossed below the signal line and remains in negative territory, confirming that bearish momentum still dominates the market. Unless the price can break back above 1.1680 and then 1.1750 with strong bullish candles, sellers retain control.
As for levels, immediate support sits near the psychological 1.1500 level, and a decisive break below could open the way toward the next significant downside zone around 1.1390.
EURUSD Daily Chart
| Resistance | 1.1728 – 1.1740 | 1.1785 – 1.1800 | 1.1919 – 1.1925 |
| Support | 1.1577 – 1.1585 | 1.1543 – 1.1560 | 1.1458 – 1.1470 |
Gold Technical Analysis
Gold remains in a strong macro uptrend, but recent price action shows the market is entering a correction phase after reaching a new high near $4,381. The strong rally has cooled, and sellers are taking profits, causing the price to pull back while still trading safely above the long-term 30-day moving average. This suggests that the broader bullish structure remains intact, even though the short-term direction has softened.
The moving averages confirm this slowdown. The 5-day and 10-day moving averages, previously steeply rising, are now flattening. Additionally, the MACD is showing a clear bearish crossover from elevated levels, and the histogram continues to deepen below the zero line. This indicates that the correction may continue until the market finds stronger demand again.
If the pullback continues, the first key support is around the $4,000–$4,010 region, followed by a stronger support zone near the 30-day moving average, around $3,850–$3870. On the upside, the bullish continuation scenario only strengthens if gold can reclaim the $4,200 level and challenge the recent high at $4,381 again.
Gold Daily Chart
| Resistance | $4,188 – $4,200 | $4,300 – $4,315 | $4,380 – $4,400 |
| Support | $4,004 – $4,020 | $3,946 – $3,960 | $3,821 – $3,840 |
Nasdaq Technical Analysis
The Nasdaq 100 continues to maintain an overall bullish structure, despite experiencing a sharp downside correction recently. Buyers quickly stepped back in after the heavy red candle. Price has now recovered above the short-term moving averages again, signaling the potential restart of the upward trend.
The structure of moving averages supports the improving bullish outlook, with MA5 and MA10 turning up again and remaining above the MA30, which continues to serve as a key dynamic support zone.
Price is currently facing a short-term resistance area of around 25,300–25,350. A strong breakout above this zone on a daily closing basis would confirm further upside toward 25,800 and potentially beyond. If price fails to hold above 25,000, a deeper pullback toward 24500 remains possible, but for now, bulls still have the upper hand.
Nasdaq Daily Chart
| Resistance | 25,250 – 25,280 | 25,360 – 25,420 | 25,460 – 25,500 |
| Support | 24,784 – 24,800 | 24,258 – 24,267 | 23,980 – 24,000 |
Brent Technical Analysis
Oil experienced a strong bullish movement during the week, with Brent up nearly 7%. The recent market structure shows a break from the downtrend on the daily chart as price targets $62.30 resistance level next. Price broke above the short term moving averages MA(5) and MA(10) and currently facing the dynamic resistance of MA(30). Closing above this level with strength could open the door for further upside movement.
MACD shows a bullish shift, indicating the positive momentum could continue further.
Brent Daily Chart
| Resistance | $66.32 – $66.47 | $68.34 – $68.50 | $69.20 – $69.34 |
| Support | $63.43 – $63.88 | $61.88 – $62.00 | $61.33 – $61.45 |
