Metals
Key Takeaways
- FOMC minutes show division during July Fed meeting as most members warned of higher inflation
- Crypto market total capitalization falls below $4 trillion as long liquidations spike
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand cuts interest rates from 3.25% to 3% in line with expectations
- Nasdaq and S&P500 experience sharp bearish correction as investors await more data about the economy
- Gold and silver show indecisiveness and low trading volume during the week
FOMC minutes of July’s Fed meeting show division among members of the committee
The latest FOMC meeting minutes, released mid-week, shed more light on the discussions inside the Fed. The minutes revealed a stark divide among Fed members. A number of officials argued that tariff-related cost pressures could keep inflation sticky above the 2% target, making it risky to cut rates and ease policy too quickly. Others emphasized that labor market conditions are beginning to soften.
The minutes also underscored that Fed policymakers are struggling to weigh short-term tariff-induced inflation against the medium-term risk of weaker growth.
These details confirmed what markets already suspected, which is that the Fed is not unified, but the balance of risks is shifting toward easing, especially if incoming employment data continues to weaken.
The odds of a September rate cut stood at 73% on Friday according to the CME Fed Watch tool.
Rally on Cryptocurrencies Pauses, But Bullish Narrative Continues
After reaching a new all-time high above $124,000 on 14 August, Bitcoin fell sharply as sellers stepped in and long liquidations were triggered, leading to a sharp 10% retracement that pulled the price closer to the $112,000 support zone. This type of reversal is often referred to as a potential bull trap, where traders expecting a breakout higher after strong trend are caught off guard by a sudden pullback downward.
Despite this correction, the broader market sentiment remains bullish. Analysts remain divided on Bitcoin’s near-term potential, highlighting macro risks, including the Federal Reserve’s delayed rate cuts and a stronger U.S. dollar, which may cap the upside momentum in risk assets like crypto.
The broader crypto market echoed to a large extent Bitcoin’s choppy moves. Ethereum struggled to hold above $4,600, while XRP and Solana slipped by around 13% and 16% respectively following Bitcoin correction. With that, total crypto market capitalization fell below $4 trillion.
Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut rates by 25 basis points
On August 20, 2025, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowered interest rates by 25 basis points from 3.25% to 3%, the lowest level in three years. The policy committee’s decision was not unanimou as two members favored a deeper 50 bp cut.
This decision reflects the increasingly forward-leaning, accommodative policy posture by the central bank, aimed at reviving momentum amid ongoing domestic and global uncertainties. Analysts anticipate two more rate cuts by year’s end, each 25 basis points, which would bring the rate down to 2.50%.
The New Zealand dollar (NZD) dropped about 1.2%, reaching a four-month low against the U.S. Dollar.
U.S. Stock Market Falls as Investors worry about valuations
The week showed a generally negative performance for U.S. equities, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average losing 0.6% to reach 44,719. The S&P 500 dropped more than 1.58% to 6,356. While the Nasdaq 100 dropped the most by more than 3% dropping below 23,000 as selling pressure mounted on mega-cap tech names.
Investor rotation away from technology was driven by a mix of higher bond yields and valuation concerns. Nvidia and Apple slipped by over 3% during the week, dragging Nasdaq down.
The recent flash PMI data painted a picture of a U.S. economy that is regaining momentum. The Composite PMI at 55.4 indicates broad-based expansion across both manufacturing and services in July, with manufacturing in particular standing out.
The Manufacturing PMI at 53.3 marked its strongest level since May 2022, signaling that factory activity, new orders, and production levels have picked up after a long stretch of declines.
Key Economic Data of the week
- Consumer price index in Canada remained largely stable at 2.6% on a yearly basis
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowered interest rates by 25 basis points from 3.25% to 3%
- Inflation rose in the UK during the month of July as the consumer price index reached 3.8% on a yearly basis
- Weekly unemployment claims in the US come higher than expected at 235K
- US flash manufacturing and services rose in July to 55.3 and 55.4 respectively
- Existing home sales in the US rose to 4.01M in July
Major Economic Calendar Events for the Upcoming Week
| Date | Metric | Country | Previous | Time [Dubai] |
| Monday, 25 August | New Home Sales | USA | 627K | 6:00 PM |
| Monday, 25 August | German IFO Business Climate | Euro | 88.6 | 12:00 PM |
| Tuesday, 26 August | Richmond Manufacturing Index | USA | -20 | 6:00 PM |
| Wednesday, 27 August | Consumer Price Index y/y | Australia | 1.90% | 5:30 AM |
| Thursday, 28 August | Gross Domestic Product (GDP) q/q | Switzerland | 0.50% | 11:00 AM |
| Thursday, 28 August | Preliminary GDP q/q | USA | 3% | 4:30 PM |
| Thursday, 28 August | Unemployment Claims | USA | 4:30 PM | |
| Friday, 29 August | Core Consumer Price Index y/y | Japan | 2.90% | 3:30 AM |
| Friday, 29 August | Gross Domestic Product (GDP) m/m | Canada | -0.10% | 4:30 PM |
| Friday, 29 August | Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) | m/m | USA | 0.30% | 4:30 PM |
Technical Analysis and Forecast:
Gold trades sideways with no clear trend in the short term
Gold has been trading in a broad sideways range on the daily chart around the $3,300 range. The price is currently consolidating around $3,335. The moving averages (5, 10, 30) are flattening, suggesting indecision and a lack of strong directional momentum.
MACD is moving near the zero line with low bars, confirming weak momentum and possible continuation of consolidation in the short term.
Unless gold breaks above $3,400 with volume, further declines below $3,200 are expected. The next major support in that case is the $3,120 level.
Gold Daily Chart
| Resistance | $3,377 – $3,386 | $3,406 – $3,421 | $3,452 – $3,476 |
| Support | $3,311 – $3,315 | $3,271 – $3,256 | $3,098 – $3,123 |
Nasdaq corrects downward more than 3%
Following Nasdaq’s strong bullish rally since last June, the index is facing strong resistance near its record highs. Recent daily candles are showing consistent declines, with prices now at 23,103.
Price has crossed the short-term moving averages (5 and 10), signaling short-term weakness. The two moving averages also show bearish arrangement.
The 30-day moving average remains supportive beneath. MACD is deep in negative territory, with widening red bars, pointing to bearish momentum. If the index fails to reclaim the 23,500 level, the correction could deepen toward 22,500–22,700.
Nasdaq Daily Chart
| Resistance | 23,505 – 23,527 | 23,821 – 23,878 | 24,000 – 24,050 |
| Support | 22,939 – 22,971 | 22,579 – 22,601 | 22,054 – 22,097 |
EURUSD loses nearly 1% as the dollar gains momentum
Following the Euro’s rally from its May lows to July highs, momentum has since faded, evident by the smaller candles on the daily chart.
The pair is currently trading around 1.1600 leve, but struggling to hold above its 10- and 30-day moving averages.
MACD is flattening out, with bearish crossover signals beginning to form on the indicator, which highlights weakening bullish momentum.
A sustained drop below 1.1550 could lead to further downside movements toward 1.1400, while buyers need a recovery above 1.1700 to regain control and push the pair back above 1.1800 level.
EURUSD Daily Chart
| Resistance | 1.1675 – 1.1680 | 1.1730 – 1.1750 | 1.1820 – 1.1831 |
| Support | 1.1528 – 1.1535 | 1.1458 – 1.1467 | 1.1380 – 1.1391 |
Bitcoin falls more than 10% from its recent record high
Sharp declines have been seen in the crypto market during the week as Bitcoin lost more than 10% since August 14th record highs.
Moving averages MA(5), MA(10), and MA(30) show bearish arrangement and crossover, suggesting downward pressure on the cryptocurrency.
Price is now nearing the crucial support level $111,800. Falling below this level could open the door for further declines toward the $107,600 level. However, a daily reversal candlestick closing above could push prices higher toward $118,000 resistance level.
Bitcoin Daily Chart
| Resistance | $117,443 – $117,782 | $120,834 – $120,876 | $124,341 – $124,537 |
| Support | $109,600 – $109,783 | $105,124 – $105,216 | $101,569 – $101,762 |
