Metals
Key Takeaways
- The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, in line with expectations.
- Gold breaks a new record high above $3,707. Silver reaches $42.97 per ounce.
- EURUSD breaks above 1.1900, for the first time since 2021
- All three major US indices reach new record highs
- Small-cap US stock index Russel 2000 jumps to new record highs above 2,480
US indices break new record highs as the Fed start cutting rates
The week saw strong gains across the major U.S. stock indices, led by tech and semiconductor stocks. On September 18, following the Fed’s 25 basis-point rate cut and its signaling of further easing, all three major indexes posted new all-time highs. The S&P 500 rose 0.5% to 6,660. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.3% to 46,365 while the Nasdaq 100 jumped 0.9% to 25,564
Small-caps also had a strong showing: the Russell 2000 jumped 2.5% to 2,467.70. This highlights a rotation into more rate-sensitive and domestically focused stocks, as investors appear more confident that future rate cuts will favor economic expansion rather than inflation risk.
Tech and semiconductor names were big drivers. One major catalyst was Nvidia’s announcement of a $5 billion investment into Intel, which fueled a sharp rally in Intel of more than 23%
One of the biggest drivers was the Fed rate cut on September 17, paired with its forward guidance that more cuts could come later in the year. This pushed down interest rates, made borrowing cheaper, and boosted risk assets, especially those with high growth and future earnings. Also, softening labor market datareinforced expectations that the Fed’s easing cycle is underway.
Looking ahead, some of the key risks that could alter this trajectory include any inflation surprises, wage growth data, and whether upcoming Fed statements maintain the dovish tone without raising concerns about overheating.
Gold jumps to new record highs above $3,707
Gold surged to a record high of about US$3,707.40 per ounce on September 17, immediately after the U.S. Federal Reserve delivered its widely expected 25 basis point rate cut. However, that high did not last. The precious metal retreated to roughly $3,645 within minutes as investors absorbed Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks that future rate moves will be assessed on a meeting-by-meeting basis.
Despite the pullb during the week showing the precious metals complex benefited broadly from the dovish shift in Fed policy.
Markets are now pricing in approximately two more 25-bp cuts for the rest of 2025. If the Fed delivers more aggressive easing or signals a faster pace, gold likely benefits. If, however, inflation surprises or employment holds up stronger than expected, gold could see pulled-back strength.
Institutional Demand and Central Bank Purchases also remain major structural drivers. Reports suggest strong central bank buying of gold and tight supply, which lend long-term upside. Also, inflows into gold ETFs during this period have been notable, reinforcing investor interest.
Despite fluctuations in the crypto market, Bitcoin nears $118,000 level
Bitcoin broke above $117,900 on September 18, showing resilience after the Fed rate cut. Ethereum broke above $4,600 after a modest weekly decline as investors were somewhat cautious about near-term profit‐taking and outflows from ETFs. XRP, Solana, and some other altcoins also moved, though with mixed outcomes. Altcoins are again being discussed as potential outperformers heading into Q4, as market sentiment appears to be rotating more toward higher risk assets.
The rate cut by the Federal Reserve was a major tailwind. Markets interpreted it as confirmation that monetary policy is easing, which often makes borrowing cheaper and risk assets more attractive. This helps crypto in general, particularly Bitcoin, which often responds to shifts in interest rate expectations.
Additionally, how big inflows or outflows are around spot-BTC and ETH ETFs will matter. Also, how exchanges and regulators execute the new standards will matter — delays or unexpected legal/regulatory friction could weigh negatively.
Key Economic Data of the week
- Retail sales in China grew 3.4%, below market expectations of 3.8%
- Consumer Price Index in Canada came at 2.5%, lower than expectations of 2.6%
- US retail sales numbers jumped 0.6%, higher than market expectations of 2.5%
- Inflation in the UK remained steady at 3.8%
- Bank of Canada cuts interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.5%
- US Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points, in line with expectations to 4.25%
- Bank of England keeps interest rate unchanged at 4%
- Bank of Japan maintains its policy rate at 0.5%
Major Economic Calendar Events for the Upcoming Week
| Date | Metric | Country | Previous | Time [Dubai] |
| Monday, 22 September | Consumer Confidence | Euro | -16 | 6:00 PM |
| Tuesday, 23 September | Flash Manufacturing PMI | Euro | 50.7 | 12:00 PM |
| Flash Services PMI | Euro | 50.5 | 12:00 PM | |
| Flash Manufacturing PMI | UK | 47 | 12:30 PM | |
| Flash Services PMI | UK | 54.2 | 12:30 PM | |
| Flash Manufacturing PMI | USA | 53 | 5:45 PM | |
| Flash Services PMI | USA | 54.5 | 5:45 PM | |
| Wednesday, 24 September | Consumer Price Index | Australia | 2.80% | 5:30 AM |
| Thursday, 25 September | Interest Rate Decision | Switzerland | 0.00% | 11:30 AM |
| Final GDP q/q | USA | 3.30% | 4:30 PM | |
| Unemployment Claims | USA | 4:30 PM | ||
| Friday, 26 September | Gross Domestic Product m/m | Canada | 4:30 PM | |
| Core Personal Consumption Expenditure | USA | 4:30 PM |
Technical Analysis and Forecast:
Dow Jones Technical Analysis
Dow Jones is in a clear uptrend with higher highs and higher lows since the 43,338 low in August. All moving averages (5, 10, 30) are aligned bullish (short-term above mid-term above long-term).
MACD is positive but shows decreasing momentum, indicating possible short-term consolidation.
Volume usually confirms strength, but candles show smaller bodies, suggesting buyer exhaustion.
In case of a bullish breakout trade above 46,500, the index may climb to 47,000. However, if it retrace to 45,200 – 45,500, this risks deeper corrections.
Dow Jones Daily Chart
| Resistance | 46,352 – 46,368 | 46,500 – 46,550 | 47,000 – 47,050 |
| Support | 45,860 – 45,943 | 45,537 – 45,621 | 45,167 – 45,205 |
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
Bitcoin resumes its uptrend after a deep correction in August. Price has been rejected twice around 124,500, which means it is a strong resistance. The cryptocurrency is currently consolidating around $116,000 – $117,000.
Immediate Resistance is around $118,500 – $119,000 range. MACD shows a positive crossover sustained since early September, supporting bullish bias.
Breaking above $119,000 – $120,000 may lead to targeting all-time high of $124,500.
We might see some consolidation between $113,500 and $124,500, until a clear trend is determined
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Daily Chart
| Resistance | $118,665 – $118,762 | $120,762 – $120,963 | $122,825 – $122, 927 |
| Support | $114,470 – $114,520 | $113,397 – $113,425 | $109,326 – $109,389 |
EURUSD Technical Analysis
EURUSD broke above a crucial resistance level this week as the pair jumped above 1.1900. Price is now decreasing with low momentum. All three moving averages MA(5), MA(10), and MA(30) are aligned in a bullish direction.
Price is likely to test the 30-day moving average soon. Failing to close below this dynamic support level could lead to a new leg upward in price. The overall trend on EURUSD remains bullish. However, a deep correction is possible following the recent spikes.
EURUSD Daily Chart
| Resistance | 1.1829 – 1.1834 | 1.1912 – 1.1920 | 1.1975 – 1.1980 |
| Support | 1.1700 – 1.1712 | 1.1582 – 1.1600 | 1.1529 – 1.1543 |
Gold Technical Analysis
Bitcoin has recently reached a new all-time high of $3,707. Price is currently in a minor pullback after testing new highs. Short-term consolidation forming between $3,620 – $3,700.
Immediate Resistance is at $3,700 – $3,707. MACD is still bullish but momentum is cooling.
A break above $3,707, might lead to further spikes toward $3,750 and $3,800. However, If price breaks below $3,600, correction could deepen toward $3,400.
Gold (XAUUSD) Daily Chart
| Resistance | $3,700 – $3,707 | $3,725 – $3,731 | $3,750 – $3,760 |
| Support | $3,613 – $3,625 | $3,562 – $3,575 | $3,460 – $3,476 |
