Metals
![Weekly Market Recap and Forecast [US House Passes the GENIUS act pushing Ether above $3,500, and Nasdaq breaks new record highs]](https://www.startrader-za.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/Weekly-Market-Recap-and-Forecast-US-House-Passes-the-GENIUS-act-pushing-Ether-above-3500-1024x536.png)
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin broke a new all-time high above $123,000 during “Crypto Week”
- Ether reaches above $3,500 for the first time this year, fueling a rally in altcoins
- Nasdadq breaks a new record above 23,138 and S&P500 breaks above 6,300
- Silver reached the highest level since September 2011 as it pushed above $39 per ounce
- US CPI and PPI data show mixed signals about inflation in June
- Netflix earnings beat expectations as revenue grows 16% in the second quarter
Bitcoin Breaks a New Record Above $123,000 As U.S. House Approves Major Crypto Bill
Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $123,153 on Monday 14 July before pulling back slightly to trade around $120,000+, achieving a 30% year-to-date gain. The rally was mainly fueled by rising optimism regarding pro-crypto legislation in the U.S. Congress, most notably the Genius Act, which passed the house on Thursday 17 July. These bills, which have been discussed among law-makers during what’s being dubbed “Crypto Week” , signal growing agreement across the aisle on crypto assets role as a legitimate part of the financial system.
Additionally, spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. have attracted more than $4 billion in net inflows in 2025 so far, driven largely by retail investors seeking long-term exposure to Bitcoin without directly holding the asset. Despite institutional allocations remaining in the early stages, there are signs of increasing interest awaiting clearer regulations.
On-chain data shows that a large portion of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is held by retail wallets with less than 10 bitcoins. This indicates that the current rally is still heavily retail-driven. This could lead to more volatility in the near term.
Meanwhile, altcoins such as Ether, Solana, and Avalanche also recorded double-digit gains this week, benefiting from increasing optimism and growing Web3 infrastructure investments.
Nasdaq And S&P500 Break New Records as Market Sentiment Remains Stable
U.S. Equity markets continued to show strength during the week, with major indices showing resilience despite potential tariff escalations. The S&P 500 rose above 6,317, continuing its climb, supported by robust Q2 earnings, and a strong rebound in tech and industrial sectors, especially Nvidia, which crossed the $4.1 trillion market cap threshold this week as the stock surged above $174
The Dow Jones Industrial Average also rose during the week modestly to 44,606, driven by gains in energy and finances. Despite concerns over retaliatory tariffs from the Euro region and Mexico, investor sentiment stayed largely positive, partly due to the improving inflation outlook and stable bond yields, which reduced pressure on tech valuations.
Silver Reaches the Highest Level Since September 2011, While Gold Lacks Momentum
Gold prices fluctuated during the week around $3,345 level. The slight pullback came as the U.S. dollar index strengthened to above 98.00, supported by better-than-expected retail sales data and hawkish Fed commentary. The market is expected to remain cautious awaiting the July 30 FOMC meeting and Fed rate decision.
On the other hand, silver showed more strength, climbing above $39, driven by a combination of safe-haven demand and industrial optimism. Silver is still benefiting from its dual role as both a monetary and industrial asset. The precious metal has so far gained more than 30% year-to-date. Investors are increasingly betting on a rate cut in September from the Federal Reserve. This has increased appetite for precious metals, especially silver, which tends to outperform gold during periods of softening monetary policy .
Silver is also benefiting from rising demand for green energy technologies, particularly in solar panel manufacturing and EV components.
Inflation Data in the US Give Mixed Signals, But A Rate Cut Is Still Likely in September
Consumer Price Index (CPI) on monthly basis, signaling early signs of passing tariff-driven cost increases into consumers. On the other hand, Producer Price Index (PPI) was unchanged month-over-month in June, an unexpected pause despite a forecast of 0.2%.
The uptick in CPI combined with the steady PPI increases the chance of a rate cut in September, rather than July, as the Fed continues to observe further inflation momentum
Deeper scrutiny will now be on upcoming data, mainly July CPI and PPI numbers, retail sales, industrial productio for confirmation if inflation has peaked and begun a sustainable trend toward the Fed’s 2% target.
Key Economic Data of the week
- Canada’s CPI remains at 2.6% in June, below expectations of 2.7%
- U.S. CPI rises to 2.7% in June from its May level of 2.4%
- UK inflation rises unexpectedly to 3.6% in June
- U.S. PPI data shows no change as producer inflation rate comes at 0.0% in June
- Australia’s unemployment rate rises to 4.3% after weak job numbers
- U.S. Retail sales grow better than expected in June at 0.6% on monthly basis
- Japan’s inflation cools to 3.3% in the month of June
Major Economic Calendar Events for the Upcoming Week
| Date | Metric | Country | Previous | Time [Dubai] |
| Monday, 21 July | Consumer Price Index (CPI) | q/q | New Zealand | 0.90% | 2:45 AM |
| Tuesday, 22 July | Richmond Manufacturing Index | USA | -7 | 6:00 PM |
| Wednesday, 23 July | Core Consumer Price Index y/y | Japan | 2.50% | 9:00 AM |
| Existing Home Sales | USA | 4.03 m | 6:00 PM | |
| Thursday, 24 July | Flash Manufacturing PMI | Euro | 49.5 | 12:00 PM |
| Thursday, 24 July | Flash Services PMI | Euro | 50.5 | 12:00 PM |
| Flash Manufacturing PMI | UK | 47.7 | 12:30 PM | |
| Flash Services PMI | UK | 52.8 | 12:30 PM | |
| Interest Rate Decision | Euro | 2.15% | 4:15 PM | |
| Flash Manufacturing PMI | USA | 52.9 | 5:45 PM | |
| Flash Services PMI | USA | 52.9 | 5:45 PM | |
| Friday, 25 July | Retail Sales | UK | -2.70% | 10:00 AM |
Technical Analysis and Forecast:
Ether price spiked, gaining more than 20% during the week and breaking above $3,500. The bullish trend remains strong on the daily chart. All moving averages MA(5), MA(10), and MA(30) are slopping upward, confirming the uptrend.
MACD also shows a bullish signal and no signs of weakness so far. Watch out for a drop toward the moving averages as they act as dynamic support. As long as price remains above $2,200 the uptrend is still intact.
Ether (ETHUSD) Daily Chart
| Resistance | $3,820 – $3,850 | $4,000 – $4,120 | $4,312 – $4,410 |
| Support | $3,300 – $3,362 | $3,016 – $3,150 | $2,814 – $2,897 |
The daily chart on Dow Jones shows a strong V-shaped recovery from the April low of around 36,500. The index is currently near a recent swing high after a short-term consolidation phase. Possible breakout is pending.
All moving averages are aligned bullishly as price bounced from MA(10) and MA(30) recently, confirming support. The 30-day moving average is sloping upward, giving a longer-term bullish signal.
MACD is still in positive territory but showing slight bearish crossover.
Overall trend is still bullish, but short-term caution warranted. Key resistance remains at psychological level of 45,000 – 45,100. The index needs to break with volume to see new highs.
Dow Jones Daily Chart
| Resistance | 44,965 – 45,000 | 45,200 – 45,361 | 46,110 – 46,298 |
| Support | 43,779 – 43,960 | 43,000 – 43,097 | 42,435 – 42,500 |
USDJPY recorded the yearly bottom near 140.00 psychological level in April. Since then, the pair has been trending upward with higher highs and higher lows. Price is now trading above all moving averages MAs (5, 10, 30), confirming bullish strength. The three moving averages show a clear bullish alignment with the 5-day moving average acting as short-term dynamic support.
MACD line is above signal line, supporting the bullish sentiment.
The pair remains bullish in the near term with key resistance to watch at 150.00 psychological and past high zones. As long as price stays above 145.50–146.00, the uptrend remains intact.
USDJPY Daily Chart
| Resistance | 150.44 – 150.60 | 151.23 – 151.48 | 152.32 – 152.57 |
| Support | 146.90 – 147.00 | 145.78 – 145.96 | 144.25 – 144.40 |
Silver shows a strong bullish rally on the daily chart from the March low of this year. The chart shows minor consolidation near highs, forming a potential bullish flag. Price remains in a clear uptrend with ascending support levels.
Moving averages MA(5), MA(10), MA(30), are in full bullish alignment. Additionally, Price continues to rebound the MA(10) and MA(30) moving averages acting as dynamic support zones.
MACD line well above signal line, which supports positive sentiment.
A breakout above $39.20 may trigger next leg higher toward psychological level $40.00. However, watch for possible short-term retracement if MACD flattens again.
Silver (XAGUSD) Daily Chart
| Resistance | $39.00 – $39.14 | $39.45 – $39.50 | $40.00 – $40.26 |
| Support | $37.50 – $37.54 | $36.00 – $36.15 | $35.30 – $35.40 |
