Metals
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high above $124,500
- Ether nears its previous all-time high as it reaches $4,789
- Nasdaq, Dow Jones, and S&P500 all reach new record highs due to expectations of a rate cut
- US CPI and PPI numbers show mixed signals for the month of July
- Gold falls as the US dollar strengthens. The precious metal continues its sideways movements.
- Trump extends China tariff deadline for 90 days
Bitcoin reaches new records, and Ether nears its 2021 all-time high
The cryptocurrency market saw a notable rebound during the week, driven by a combination of macroeconomic optimism, namely interest rate cut expectations, regulatory progress, and increasing institutional participation.
Bitcoin surged past the $124,500 mark for the first time in its history before profit-taking pushed it back toward $117,000 levels by Thursday. The upward move was fueled in part by Trump’s executive order allowing crypto assets to be included in 401(k) retirement plans.
Ether significantly outperformed Bitcoin during the week, rallying to highs of $4,788, its strongest level since 2021 all-time high. This surge was propelled by robust inflows into Ethereum ETFs, as well as regulatory clarity from the SEC on staking frameworks.
Altcoins also participated in the rally. XRP jumped over 5% to reach $3.3 on Thursday, after the SEC settled its case accusing Ripple of selling unregistered securities, clearing a major legal overhang. Solana climbed 15% to trade near $210 before it retreated back below $200. Market-wide sentiment was further supported by easing U.S. CPI inflation data, which increased expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate cut, a macro factor historically supportive of risk assets like crypto.
All three major US indices reach new record highs
Major U.S. indices posted solid gains throughout the week. The S&P 500 rose approximately 1.38% to 6,484 , with Nasdaq 100 gaining 0.8% as well to reach 23,849 , while the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 2.32% to 45,256.
The rally in the US equities market was largely driven by strong second-quarter earnings. Markets also reacted positively to early signs of cooling price pressures bolstered expectations for a September Fed rat cut
Despite inflation concerns from some market participants, evidenced by a sharp 0.9% jump in PPI in July, underscoring pressures in goods and services pricing, markets showed resilience. Major indices continued their upward trajectory through the week, though gains took a pause after the inflation data.
As of mid-August, the year-to-date performance remains robust: Nasdaq leads with a 13.3% gain, followed by the S&P 500 at 9.45%, the Dow Jones at 6.44%.
Major currencies rise as the USD shows weakness
The U.S. dollar experienced widespread softness over the week, slipping 0.6% as rate-cut expectations gained momentum following weak jobs data. However, the dollar bounced back up after PPI data showed wholesale inflation ticking higher. The DXY (Dollar Index) held near the 98.00 leve but traded off its earlier highs as markets increasingly saw a 25-basis-point Fed cut in September as nearly certain, while chances of a more aggressive 50-basis-point cut were effectively ruled out
The Japanese yen added around 0.4% against the dollar, with USD/JPY falling to 146.00 levels. This was driven by unexpectedly robust Japanese GDP growth
The euro remained relatively stable throughout the week, holding around $1.1672, supported by modestly weaker U.S. dollar sentiment and some optimism from the U.S.–EU trade deal
Key Economic Data of the week
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowers interest rates from 3.85% to 3.60% in line with expectations.
- The US Consumer Price Index is changed in July at 2.7%, but core CPI ticks higher at 3.1% on a yearly basis
- The US Producer Price Index showed a noticeable increase to 0.9% versus expectations of 0.2%
- The unemployment rate remains stable in Australia at 4.2%
- The UK’s economy grew more than expected as GDP numbers showed a 0.4% increase on a monthly basis
- Retail sales numbers in China showed a decline from 4.8% to 3.7%, lower than expected
Major Economic Calendar Events for the Upcoming Week
| Date | Metric | Country | Previous | Time [Dubai] |
| Monday, 18 August | Trade Balance | Euro | 16.2B | 1:00 PM |
| Tuesday, 19 August | Consumer Price Index y/y | Canada | 2.60% | 4:30 PM |
| Wednesday, 20 August | Interest Rate Decision | New Zealand | 3.25% | 6:00 AM |
| Consumer Price Index y/y | UK | 3.60% | 10:00 AM | |
| FOMC Meeting Minutes | USA | 10:00 PM | ||
| Thursday, 21 August | Flash Manufacturing PMI | Euro | 49.1 | 12:00 PM |
| Flash Services PMI | Euro | 50.6 | 12:00 PM | |
| Flash Manufacturing PMI | UK | 48 | 12:30 PM | |
| Flash Services PMI | UK | 51.8 | 12:30 PM | |
| Flash Manufacturing PMI | USA | 49.8 | 5:45 PM | |
| Flash Services PMI | USA | 55.7 | 5:45 PM | |
| Jackson Hole Symposium | USA | All Day | ||
| Friday, 22 August | Retail Sales m/m | UK | 0.90% | 10:00 AM |
| Retail Sales m/m | Canada | -1.10% | 4:30 PM |
Technical Analysis and Forecast:
Bitcoin retreats after reaching new record highs
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) surged more than 4% to a weekly high of $124,500 before easing below $118,000. This rally marked an impressive recovery from the recent dip to $98,182 in June. The cryptocurrency maintained its bullish bias over the week, with price action forming higher highs and higher lows. Price faced strong rejection at record highs.
The 50-day moving average is trending well above the 200-day, confirming a strong uptrend. MACD remains in positive zone and suggesting momentum still favors buyers despite the recent consolidation.
A break above $124,500 could open the way toward $127,800, while closing below $117,000 on the daily chart warns of further declines toward $112,500
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Daily Chart
| Resistance | $121,149 – $121,254 | $124,102 – $124,500 | $125,000 – $125,150 |
| Support | $117,246 – $117,506 | $115,040 – $115,240 | $111,920 – $112,210 |
Gold prices dropped during the week, but remains in mid-term consolidation
Gold (XAUUSD) continues to show sideways consolidation between near $3,400 levels, reflecting indecision in the market. The moving averages MA(5), MA(10), and MA(30) are moving sideways, signaling a pause in directional momentum.
MACD lines are converging toward the zero line, which often precedes a breakout in either direction. A breakout above $3,360 could drive price higher to $3,460, while a drop below $3,320 might lead to a deeper bearish movement toward $3,220
Gold Daily Chart
| Resistance | $3,375 – $3,387 | $3,399 – $3,408 | $3,438 – $3,450 |
| Support | $3,268 – $3,275 | $3,237 – $3,245 | $3,158 – $3,177 |
Sterling Pound pushes above 1.3500 against the US dollar
GBPUSD shows bullish momentum on the daily chart after a 5% bearish correction in the month of July. Moving averages MA(5), MA(10), and MA(30) show a bullish crossover possibly pushing price toward 1.3700 level.
During the week, the pair broke above the 50-day moving average on the daily chart, a strong bullish sign. MACD is in positive territory, indicating bullish sentiment is still on.
If price retests the 50-day moving average, and fails to close below it, a possible upward movement toward 1.3700 is likely.
GBPUSD Daily Chart
| Resistance | 1.3593 – 1.3623 | 1.3683 – 1.3722 | 1.3788 – 1.3804 |
| Support | 1.3451 – 1.3467 | 1.3334 – 1.3303 | 1.3238 – 1.3221 |
Dow Jones breaks new records above 2024 highs
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJ30) sustained its strong upward movement, pushing to fresh highs at 45,288 breaking above its previous record seen in December 2024. Price action remains above both the short-term and long-term moving averages, and the slope of these averages indicates sustained bullish strength. Price also found support recently at the 50-day moving average.
MACD supports the bullish movement on the index, showing momentum acceleration. Eyes on the 45,300 potential resistance level, while 45,000 is likely to serve as a key near-term support level to watch for trend confirmation upward in case price fails to drop below.
Dow Jones Daily Chart
| Resistance | 45,500 – 45,612 | 45,640 – 45,721 | 46,021 – 46,210 |
| Support | 44,687 – 44,702 | 44,187 – 44,247 | 43,796 – 43,916 |
