Metals
Key Takeaways
- Major U.S. stock indices reached new records, boosted by rate-cut expectations and easing yields.
- Asian equities rallied on hopes that U.S. rate cuts are near, with Japan’s Nikkei jumping to new levels.
- Oracle jumps more than 40% after earnings beat expectations
- Gold reaches a new record high above $3,674 per ounce
- Silver continues to outperform gold, jumping almost 3% during the week to $42.15
- Mixed signals about inflation in the US economy, and softening in the labor market
- OPEC+ members to hike production output by 137,000 bpd from October
- U.S. economic data showed signs of softening, particularly in labor markets and inflation, increasing chances that the Fed will cut interest rates in September.
US indices climb higher as optimism of a Fed rate cut overshadows inflation fears
The August Consumer Price Index showed inflation remains high. Headline CPI rose 2.9% on yearly basis, up from 2.7% in July,. This reading shows that price pressure is still present across consumer categories, but it isn’t spiralling higher at an accelerating pace. For that reason, markets see some scope for policy easing while still watching inflation closely.
At the same time, U.S. labor data showed more softening. Initial jobless claims jumped to about 263,000, the highest in nearly four years. Those signs of slowing down in hiring, larger weekly claims and very weak monthly payroll gains have tilted market expectations toward a Federal Reserve cut.
Equities rallied against the backdrop of this data. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached fresh record highs, with the Nasdaq reaching 24,016 and the S&P500 at 6,592. The Dow Jones also closed above 46,000 for the first time, as hopes of lower funding costs and continued strong corporate earnings supported risk assets. Technology and AI-exposed names led much of the advance, while small-cap and cyclical sectors also picked up on the prospect of cheaper borrowing costs.
Looking forward, markets have priced in a near-certainty of a September cut. CME FedWatch showed the probability of a Fed cut in September at 92% for 25 basis points, and 8% for 50 basis points. This is driven largely by weak payrolls and higher unemployment claims. The key risk in the market now is that inflation readings reaccelerate and spiral out of control, which could force the Fed to temper the pace of easing and trigger a re-pricing back toward higher yields.
Gold breaks new record highs above $3,674 per ounce
Over the week, gold prices continued their strong upward trend. Spot gold rose about 1.8% over the week, reaching $3,674 per ounce. Silver saw similar strength, breaking above $42 and maintained gains on the week despite some volatility.
Several key factors fueld the precious metals’ rallies. Soft U.S. labor market data, mainly the U.S. nonfarm payroll report released in early September which showed just 22,000 jobs added in August, far below expectations. Coupled with higher jobless claims, this data increases fears that the Fed’s tightening has cooled the labor market more than hoped. Weak job growth boosted expectations that the Fed would cut rates soon, which tends to support gold and silver.
Geopolitical tensions, policy surprises, or concerns over Fed independence could sharply boost safe-haven demand. Institutional flows and central bank buying remain important factors, especially if they accelerate.
Cryptocurrencies recover on hopes of a rate cut after a long wait
During the week, Bitcoin largely traded in a consolidation phase. But the uptrend picked up on Wednesday following US producer price index numbers, which came lower than expected, boosting the chances of a rate cut in September. The cryptocurrency rose 4.5% during the week, breaking above $116,000 for the first time since late August.
Ethereum and XRP also trended up during the week. Ether rose more than 5% to $4,540 and XRP gained more than 6% during the week reclaiming the $3 level.
Looking ahead, the path for Ethereum, XRP, and other altcoins likely depends on whether Bitcoin can break out above its resistance around $120,000. If so, it could pull up the broader market. Conversely, a break below support near $110,000 could cause more downside or consolidation. Monitoring macro triggers, like job numbers, CPI, Fed members’ speeches will be crucial in judging whether crypto breaks its current trading range.
Key Economic Data of the week
- The Japanese economy grew 0.5% in the second quarter of 2025, higher than market expectations of 0.3%
- China’s consumer prices fell 0.4% on a yearly basis in August, more than market expectations.
- US producer prices fell unexpectedly 0.1% in August, as analysts expected a 0.3% rise
- The European Central Bank keeps the interest rate unchanged at 2.15%
- US consumer prices show higher-than-expected inflation numbers in August, 2.9% on a yearly basis.
- Weekly unemployment claims in the US indicate softening labor market with 263K claims, the highest since October 2021
- UK GDP numbers showed the economy slowed down in July as it recorded no growth
Major Economic Calendar Events for the Upcoming Week
| Date | Metric | Country | Previous | Time [Dubai] |
| Monday, 15 September | Producer Price Index m/m | Switzerland | -0.20% | 10:30 AM |
| Monday, 15 September | Empire State Manufacturing Index | USA | 4:30 PM | |
| Tuesday, 16 September | Unemployment Rate | UK | 4.70% | 10:00 AM |
| Tuesday, 16 September | Consumer Price Index y/y | Canada | 2.60% | 4:30 PM |
| Tuesday, 16 September | Retail Sales | USA | 0.50% | 4:30 PM |
| Wednesday, 17 September | Consumer Price Index y/y | UK | 3.80% | 10:00 AM |
| Wednesday, 17 September | Interest Rate Decision | Canada | 2.75% | 5:45 PM |
| Wednesday, 17 September | Fed Funds Rate | USA | 4.50% | 10:00 PM |
| Thursday, 18 September | Gross Domestic Product | New Zealand | 0.80% | 2:45 AM |
| Thursday, 18 September | Unemployment Rate | Australia | 4.20% | 5:30 AM |
| Thursday, 18 September | Interest Rate Decision | UK | 4.00% | 3:00 PM |
| Friday, 19 September | Interest Rate Decision | Japan | Tentative |
Technical Analysis and Forecast:
Gold Technical Analysis
Gold’s rally remains strong as seen on the daily chart. Since 22 August, the precious metal has been trending upward. All three moving averages MA(5), MA(10), and MA(30) are trending upward, and price is moving above them, indicating a strong uptrend.
Price is currently testing the 5-day moving average. The next critical support level is the 30-day moving average. While the trend remains strong, a correction toward $3,550 is possible and could help push prices higher.
MACD is strongly bullish with no signs of reversal, but slowing down is seen on the indicator are prices hold steady near all-time highs.
Gold Daily Chart
| Resistance | $3,670 – $3,675 | $3,700 – $3,705 | $3,720 – $3,725 |
| Support | $3,612 – $3,623 | $3,581 – $3,598 | $3,552 – $3.561 |
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
After peaking at $124,492 in August, bitcoin corrected downward but is now showing a bullish recovery with a clear bullish price action. Price has crossed above the short-term moving averages MA(5) and MA(10), approaching the 30-day moving average, suggesting short-term bullish momentum.
MACD shows a strong bullish crossover, indicating growing buying pressure. This supports the uptrend on the daily chart.
Price action on the daily chart and the bullish momentum favor buyers. A break above $118,000 could open the door for a retest of $124,000. Watch for pullbacks to $112,000 levels as potential reversal zones.
Bitcoin Daily Chart
| Resistance | $116,318 – $116,400 | $117,231 – $117,441 | $119,240 – $119,365 |
| Support | $113,200 – $113,250 | $110,875 – $110,905 | $109,310 – $109,445 |
EURUSD Technical Analysis
EURUSD trades in consolidation after reaching the 1.1829 peak in July. Price remains mostly within the range of 1.1600 – 1.1800.
Shorter moving averages MA(5) and MA(10) are flattening slightly above the 30-day moving average, showing neutral to mildly bullish bias.
MACD is slightly positive, and the MACD line is above the signal line, suggesting weak bullish momentum.
The pair remains mostly in consolidation with a potential breakout if EURUSD clears 1.1820. A downside break below 1.1650 could trigger renewed selling.
EURUSD Daily Chart
| Resistance | 1.1780 – 1.1790 | 1.1800 – 1.1810 | 1.1856 – 1.1850 |
| Support | 1.1660 – 1.1672 | 1.1623 – 1.1640 | 1.1570 – 1.1575 |
Dow Jones Technical Analysis
Dow Jones rebounded strongly from the 43,338 level in August and it pushed to new record levels. All three moving averages are aligned bullishly, with prices above them, suggesting solid uptrend.
MACD shows positive momentum with the MACD line above the signal line. The indicator also shows steady buying interest.
Bullish momentum remain intact on the Dow Jones. If price sustains above 46,200, the next potential resistance lies around 47,000. Failure to break may cause short-term pullback.
Dow Jones Daily Chart
| Resistance | 46,191 – 46,205 | 46,400 – 46,425 | 46,500 – 46,525 |
| Support | 45,783 – 45,796 | 45,206 – 45,215 | 44,920 – 44,951 |
