Metals
Key Takeaways
- The US equity market recouped its losses from the previous week and nears its record highs
- Trump announces new tariffs on semiconductor companies, and hikes tariffs on Indian exports to the US
- Trump and Putin are scheduled to meet in the upcoming week to discuss the Russian-Ukranian war
- The Crypto market recovers as Ethereum, XRP both spike more than 12%, and altcoins record strong gains
- September rate cut probability jumps above 90% following weaker-than-expected employment numbers
- Apple pledges to invest $100 billion in the US in the next four years. The company’s stock closed the week up more than 7%
- Silver prices jump nearly 4% as industrial demand and supply shortages fuel rally
Gold and silver prices recover as the dollar resumes its downtrend
Gold traded within a narrow but upward range during the week, breaking above $3,400 on Thursday, driven by safe-haven demand amid renewed tariff concerns and weak U.S. Job data that increased expectations of a Fed rate cut in September.
Silver outperformed gold in percentage terms, rising about 3.5% to approximately $38.50 per once as of August 7, underpinned by surging industrial demand and persistent supply deficits, with year-to-date gains around 30%.
The performance of both precious metals was strongly influenced by USD dynamics. As weaker-than-expected job data emerged on Friday and rate-cut probabilities surged, the dollar slipped, making gold and silver relatively more attractive, which supported their uptrend.
New Tarriffs on Indian exports and semiconductor manufacturing companies
Effective August 7, the U.S. implemented a sweeping expansion of tariffs on imports from dozens of countries. Tariff rates now range from 10% to 50%, depending on the country. Brazil and India have been slapped with some of the highest rates, while framework agreements reduced tariffs to 15% for several countries.
On August 6, Trump also announced an additional 25% punitive tariff on Indian goods, due to India’s continued purchase of Russian oil. This brings the total tariff rate on Indian imports to 50%, one of the highest worldwide.
President Trump also unveiled a 100% tariff on imported semiconductor chips from countries without U.S. manufacturing facilities,. However, exemptions may apply to firms with planned or existing U.S. Operations, like TSMC and Nvidia. The move is aimed directly at boosting domestic chip production.
U.S. indices rise with expectations of a rate cut in September
US indices rallied during the week, thanks to growing probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September. Markets interpreted recent economic data, particularly weaker labor market data and easing inflationary pressures as signs that the Fed could shift toward a more easing monetary policy.
The S&P 500 rose by nearly 2% during the week breaking above 6,400 and nearing its record highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose over more than 1% recapturing 44,000 levels, while the Nasdaq 100 surged 3% breaking above 23,500 as tech stocks capitalized on the lower-rate expectations.
Additionally, Apple’s announcement of a $100 billion investment pledge in the United States helped fuel this the rally. The plan, which includes building new manufacturing and research facilities as well as expanding domestic supply chains, was perceived as a strong vote of confidence in the U.S. economy. This large-scale investment could also create thousands of jobs in the US. Apple’s share price rose over 5% after the announcement.
Cryptocurrencies recover as risk sentiment improves in the market
Bitcoin rebounded during the week, rising more than 2% from $114,200 levels to $116,800 levels. This recovery reflected renewed optimism, driven by fading U.S. dollar strength and a shift in sentiment toward rate cut expectations.
Ethereum recorded strong gains of more than 12%, slipping between $3,770 and $3,800 after rebounding midweek. Its strength was partly tied to a major regulatory development: an executive order allowing cryptocurrencies like ETH into U.S. 401(k) retirement accounts. This signaled growing confidence in its long-term institutional acceptance .
XRP experienced a sharp rebound in the week, rising over 13% from a critical support level near $2.90 . It climbed to around $3.38 by August 8. Notably, XRP benefited from the resolution of its protracted lawsuit with the SEC, clarifying that public exchange sales are not securities, which increasedconfidence and even triggered speculative forecasts pushing toward triple-digit upside for late 2025
Beyond the major cryptocurrencies, smaller altcoins also rallied, supported by the overall uptick in risk sentiment and regulatory clarity.
Overall, the crypto market demonstrated renewed resilience this week—spurred by improved macro conditions, enhanced regulatory signals, and institutional interest.
Key Economic Data of the week
- Inflation numbers in Switzerland showed no increase in prices during the month of July
- ISM services data in the US came lower than expected at 50.1
- Unemployment rate in New Zealand dropped from 5.3% to 5.2%
- Bank of England lowers interest rates from 4.25% to 4.00% in line with expectations
- Unemployment claims in the US came higher than expected at 226K versus 221K estimates
Major Economic Calendar Events for the Upcoming Week
| Date | Metric | Country | Previous | Time [Dubai] |
| Monday, 11 August | Cleveland Fed Inflation Expectations | USA | 3.90% | Tentative |
| Tuesday, 12 August | Interest Rate Decision | Australia | 3.85% | 8:30 AM |
| Claimant Count Change | UK | 25.9K | 10:00 AM | |
| Consumer Price Index (CPI) | y/y | USA | 2.70% | 4:30 PM | |
| Wednesday, 13 August | Producer Price Index (PPI) | y/y | Japan | 2.90% | 3:50 AM |
| Thursday, 14 August | Unemployment Rate | Australia | 4.30% | 5:30 AM |
| Gross Domestic Product (GDP) m/m | UK | -0.10% | 10:00 AM | |
| Producer Price Index (PPI) m/m | USA | 0.00% | 4:30 PM | |
| Friday, 15 August | Retail Sales m/m | USA | 0.60% | 4:30 PM |
Technical Analysis and Forecast:
Nasdaq jumps 3.6% recouping last week’s losses
The Nasdaq 100 continues its uptrend with a clear bullish bias on the daily chart. And following the recent pull-back, the index has regained strength, with prices rebounding from the 30-day moving average and now trading above both the 5-day and 10-day moving averages. This signals that short-term momentum has shifted back to the bulls.
The MACD remains below zero level. However, the lines are trending downward, implying that the recent bounce is not yet confirmed as a full reversal.
A break above the 23,700 resistance could accelerate bullish momentum toward new record highs, while failure to sustain above 23,300 could trigger another retest of the 22,800 support zone.
Nasdaq Daily Chart
| Resistance | 23,691 – 23,711 | 24,000 – 24,150 | 25,000 – 25,213 |
| Support | 22,937 – 23,000 | 22,660 – 22,741 | 22,386 – 22,474 |
GBPUSD resumes its uptrend after rebounding from a key support area
After retesting May’s low around 1.3130 area, GBPUSD resumed its long-term uptrend as the pair shows strength again. Moving average MA(5) recently crossed MA(10) to the upside, which supports uptrend continuation.
Price is currently facing a 30-period moving average as a dynamic resistance.
MACD showed a bullish crossover and the indicator is currently trading above the zero line, which confirms the continuation of the uptrend.
A break above the 30-day moving average and daily closure beyond this level could open the door for more bullish movement toward 1.3800 levels
GBPUSD Daily Chart
| Resistance | 1.3588 – 1.3601 | 1.3687 – 1.3704 | 1.3804 – 1.3821 |
| Support | 1.3292 – 1.3304 | 1.3149 – 1.3167 | 1.2956 – 1.2968 |
Bitcoin bounces back above $115,000
Bitcoin is recovering from its losses in the past two weeks. The decline found support around the $112,000 mark.
The moving averages show that the shorter-term averages (5-day and 10-day) are beginning to flatten after a downward slope, signaling a potential stabilization. The 30-day moving average is still trending higher, suggesting that the broader uptrend remains intact.
The MACD is still in the negative zone, but the histogram bars are contracting, indicating that bearish momentum is fading. A bullish crossover on the MACD could further validate an upside move.
Resistance is now seen around $118,500–$120,000 .A breakout above this could put the July highs back in play.
However, the $112,000–$113,000 range is key support now, and a breakdown there could trigger deeper selling toward the psychological $100,000 level.
Bitcoin Daily Chart
| Resistance | $119,869 – $120,312 | $120,916 – $121,160 | $122,786 – $123,217 |
| Support | $112,626 – $113,211 | $111,218 – $111,872 | $107,439 – $107,928 |
Gold is nearing its monthly highs as buying pressure resumes
Gold continues its consolidation with no clear directional bias in the short term. However, the long-term trend remains bullish.
The price currently finds support at the 30-day moving average, and has been gradually recovering. The short-term moving averages (5-day and 10-day) are slopping upward and showing a bullish crossover, which could indicate renewed buying momentum.
The MACD, which had been in negative territory for several weeks, is flattening out and moving closer to the zero line, suggesting that bearish momentum is weakening.
If the MACD signal line crosses above the MACD line, it could confirm a potential shift back to the upside. Abreakout above $3,450 could open the way for a retest of the $3,500 record highs.
On the other hand, a drop below $3,250–$3,280 could lead the price to drop towards $3,100 support zone.
Gold Daily Chart
| Resistance | $3,430 $3,439 | $3,453 – $3,461 | $3,489 – $3,500 |
| Support | $3,349 – $3,358 | $3,302 – $3,326 | $3,269 – $3,276 |
