Metals
Key Takeaways
- Fed rate cut optimism continues, as markets digest monetary easing expectations already priced in.
- Gold hit fresh record highs at $3,897 on safe-haven demand and dovish sentiment.
- Cryptocurrencies rallied, with Bitcoin crossing the $120,000 mark, and Ethereum posting strong gains amid dollar softness and risk flows.
- U.S. equities saw positive performance throughout the week. Nasdaq and S&P500 break new record highs.
- U.S. government shutdown added a layer of policy uncertainty and threatening data delays as NFP numbers are rescheduled.
U.S. Equities remain solid and momentum continues
U.S. equities opened the week in a solid position, supported by optimism over the Federal Reserve’s easing monetary policy and relatively stable inflation data. By the end of the week, Nasdaq 100 gained almost 2% to 24,980 and S&P500 rose 1.38% to 6,736, both reaching new record highs. While the Dow Jones recorded modest gains of 0.8% by the end of the week.
The rally was supported by continued strength in technology and chip stocks, which helped offset weakness in energy and other sectors pressured by crude price softness.
Looking ahead, the indices will likely remain sensitive to a few key catalysts, mainly the unfolding of the government shutdown and potential delays to economic releases, upcoming employment and inflation data, and any surprises in Fed rhetoric. If rate cuts remain assured and political risk eases, there’s room for further upside. But if data surprises or shutdown risk intensifies, we may see a pullback or rotation out of vulnerable sectors.
Precious Metals Rally Amid Safe Haven Demand
Gold had another strong week, hitting a record high at $3,897 before pulling back slightly. The precious metal ended the week with a gain of about 2.5% amid rising expectations of further U.S. rate cuts and U.S. government shutdown, which heightened political and economic uncertainty. Silver also posted gains, rising around 2.6% to $48, supported by its dual role as both a precious metal and an industrial input.
Looking ahead, gold’s path may hinge on how the dollar, real yields, and economic and political signals evolve. Key support levels to watch lie around $3,800–$3,850, while resistance may emerge between $3,900 and $4,000, crucial psychological levels. If rate cuts are confirmed and the shutdown persists, gold could push higher, but a rebound in the dollar or surprise economic strength could trigger selling pressure. Moving to silver, its industrial demand exposure gives it potential upside, especially if global growth stabilizes, but also makes it more vulnerable to cyclical headwinds.
Oil endured its worst weekly performance in three months. Brent fell more than 5% to $64.65 and WTI lost 6% to $60.90. The losses mostly stemmed from fears of oversupply, particularly as OPEC+ is reported to be considering increasing output in November. Inventory builds, weaker seasonal fuel demand, and concerns around Chinese demand softness added to the downward pressure.
Cryptocurrencies recover and Bitcoin recaptures the $120,000 level
The week saw a strong revival in Bitcoin’s momentum as it surged above $120,000 by Friday, driven by substantial inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and growing concerns over the U.S. government shutdown pushing capital into alternative assets. The cryptocurrency gained about 7% over the week, reflecting renewed investor confidence and risk appetite.
Ethereum also participated in the rally, as it broke above $4,500 again marking more than 7% weekly gain. This push came as market participants eyed broader support for crypto assets amid dovish expectations for Fed policy and inflows into altcoin and diversified crypto ETFs. XRP and other altcoins also experienced upward pressure. XRP in particular gained attention due to ongoing regulatory clarity developments and expectations that new listing standards could bring more ETF options for altcoins.
Investors need to closely monitor key drivers that could shape the next phase, including continued ETF inflows, regulatory developments, macro and monetary policy signals.
USD weakens against the Euro and the Japenese Yen
The U.S. dollar slipped modestly over the week, with the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) down about 0.25%. The decline was influenced by expectations that the Fed’s easing cycle will continue, combined with uncertainty from the US government shutdown and mixed economic data.
EUR/USD exhibited relative strength. As markets grew wary of continued dollar softness, the euro gained modest ground. On the other hand, USD/JPY faced pressure as the yen benefitted from safe-haven flows and speculative expectations of policy shifts in Japan. USD/JPY retreated after failing to push convincingly above 150, testing support near 147.
Key Economic Data of the week
- Pending Home Sales in the U.S. Show an increase of 4%, higher than market expectations.
- Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rate unchanged at 3.6%
- US JOLTS Job Openings reflect a slight increase in hiring of 7.23m versus expectations of 7.19m
- ADP Non-Farm Employment Change disappoint investors with a 32K job loss, versus expectations of adding 52K jobs.
- ISM Manufacturing PMI numbers improved to 49.1 from the previous reading of 48.7
Major Economic Calendar Events for the Upcoming Week
| Date | Metric | Country | Previous | Time [Dubai] |
| Monday, 6 October | Retail Sales m/m | Euro | -0.50% | 1:00 PM |
| Tuesday, 7 October | Trade Balance | USA | -78.3B | 4:30 PM |
| Ivey PMI | Canada | 50.1 | 6:00 PM | |
| Wednesday, 8 October | Interest Rate Decision | New Zealand | 3% | 5:00 AM |
| FOMC Meeting Minutes | USA | 10:00 PM | ||
| Thursday, 9 October | Unemployment Claims | USA | 4:30 PM | |
| Friday, 10 October | Unemployment Rate | Canada | 7.10% | 4:30 PM |
| Prelim Consumer Sentiment (Michigan) | USA | 55.1 | 4:30 PM | |
| Prelim Inflation Expectations (Michigan) | USA | 4.70% | 4:30 PM | |
| Federal Budget Balance | USA | -344.8B | 10:00 PM |
Technical Analysis and Forecast:
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
Bitcoin has successfully completed a bullish breakout from a multi-week range. While the broader context remains a large trading range, the recent price action is overall bullish.
Moving averages MA(5) and MA(10) have recently completed a bullish crossover, demonstrating a fundamental shift in short-term sentiment. The price is now trading well above all moving averages, confirming the strength of the breakout.
MACD provides support of the bullish trend with the recent green bars. A possible target for this trend is to re-test the previous range around 124,500 . The current bias remains bullish, suggesting further upward movement is highly probable.
Bitcoin Daily Chart
| Resistance | $122,311 – $122,420 | $124,483 – $124,520 | $125,000 – $125,100 |
| Support | $117,167 – $117,236 | $113,946 – $114,050 | $110,250 – $110,387 |
Gold Technical Analysis
Gold prices show the continuation of a significant and accelerating rally on the daily chart. The recent price action shows the market tightly tracking the moving averages MA(5) and MA(10), a clear sign that buyers are stepping in quickly to prevent any meaningful corrections.
MACD is strongly validating this move, with both lines rising sharply and the histogram bars expanding in positive territory, confirming the upward acceleration and minimal risk of immediate reversal
The technical outlook for Gold is bullish. With the 30-period moving average possible acting as dynamic support.
Gold (XAUUSD) Daily Chart
| Resistance | $3,896 – $3,905 | $3,925 – $3,930 | $3,975 – $4,000 |
| Support | $3,820 – $3,832 | $3,763 – $3,775 | $3,700 – $3,712 |
Nasdaq Technical Analysis
Nasdaq 100 shows a clear uptrend on the daily chart, as prices push toward the recent high of 25,000. The price action shows a consistent pattern of higher highs and higher lows.
Moving averages MA(5), MA(10), and MA(10) are in a clear bullish alignment.
MACD is highly supportive of the uptrend, with the MACD line significantly above the signal line and the. This confluence of indicators suggests bullish conviction. The main bias remains bullish, as the trend’s strength implies a possible move to establish new record highs.
Nasdaq Daily Chart
| Resistance | 25,000 – 25,020 | 25,100 – 25,125 | 25,200 – 25,225 |
| Support | 24,784 – 24,812 | 24,400 – 24,413 | 24,182 – 24,200 |
GBPUSD Technical Analysis
GBP/USD is characterized by sideways movement with a recent bias shift to the bearish side. Moving averages indicate no clear bias due to consistent fluctuations. While the price remains above the longer-term moving average MA(30), signaling long-term support is still intact, the short-term momentum is clearly fading.
MACD supports this bearish pressure. This technical structure suggests that the recent upward pressure has exhausted itself and a further pullback is likely.
GBPUSD Daily Chart
| Resistance | 1.3529 – 1.3537 | 1.3590 – 1.3600 | 1.3700 – 1.3726 |
| Support | 1.3400 – 1.3412 | 1.3325 – 1.3330 | 1.3256 – 1.3260 |
