Metals
Key Takeaways
- The U.S. Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged in July’s meeting
- U.S. Reaches trade deals with the European Union and South Korea
- Cryptocurrencies fall sharply following the FOMC meeting and monetary policy projections
- Gold and silver prices drop as the US dollar continues to strengthens
- Microsoft becomes the second company to reach a $4 trillion market cap following Q2 earnings
- The U.S. Dollar index jumps 2.45% during the week, revisiting 100 level
The U.S. Federal Reserve maintains interest rate at 4.25% – 4.50% in line with expectations
On July 30, the Federal Reserve decided to leave the Federal Funds Rate unchanged at 4.25%–4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting with rates held steady. In a 9–2 vote, Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller dissented, recommending a 25‑basis‑point cut, making it the first time in over 30 years with two governors voting against the consensus policy decision.
During his press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized a cautious, data-dependent wait-and-see approach, noting that while Q2 GDP grew by 3%, unemployment remains low at 4.1%, and inflation is still elevated.
Powell stated that no decision has been made on a possible September rate cut, and indicated the Fed wants to evaluate more incoming inflation and labor market data before adjusting its monetary policy.
These comments immediatly influenced the markets. Treasury yields rose, the U.S. dollar strengthened against major currencies, and equities dipped modestly as the odds of a September rate cut fell below 50%, according to the CME Fed Watch tool. While markets had largely anticipated a hold, Powell’s remarks dampened optimism around monetary easing in September.
The U.S. reaches a trade agreement with South Korea and the Euroopean Union for 15% tariffs
On July 27, the United States and the European Union agreed to make a trade deal that averted a potential tariff crisis. According to the agreement, a 15% tariff will apply to most EU exports, which is much lower than the previously threatened 30% level. The deal also includes lowered tariffs on autos, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals.
The EU committed to purchasing approximately $600 billion in the U.S. energy and military equipment, and potentially $750 billion over three years.
And on July 30, The US also announced a trade deal with South Korea, reducing the threatened 25% tariff on Korean goods to 15%, aligning it with U.S. tariff rates for Japan and the European Union. In return, South Korea committed to investing $350 billion in the U.S. industries, and pledged to purchase $100 billion in the U.S. energy products over 3.5 years.
The crypto market suffers big losses intensified by the FOMC decision and monetary policy projections
Following the press conference of Fed chair Jerome Powell in which he signaled that rate cuts are not assured in September, bitcoin fell from $118,650 to around $116,000. Ether and XRP posted similar pullbacks amid broader risk-off sentiment. Altcoins came under pressure, largely in response to Fed caution and macro uncertainty. Some cryptocurrencies saw sharper losses during profit-taking.
The Fed’s cautious stance around rate cuts combined with stronger macro data like GDP and labour numbers led investors to pause new crypto inflows until inflation trends become clearer. However, institutional interest remains strong.
While cryptocurrencies have experienced strong institutional inflows, the FOMC’s hawkish view served as a reminder that moves may be delayed, adding volatility and limiting short-term upside.
Gold and silver prices drop as the U.S. Dollar strengthens following Jerome Powell press conference
Gold prices dipped more than 1% during the week, falling from approximately $3,338 per ounce to $3,268 before rebounding, marking its second consecutive weekly decline. The primary reason for this decline was a 1.5% rise in the U.S. Dollar Index, which made dollar-denominated gold more expensive for international buyers. This move came as weakening global trade tensions from the recent U.S.–EU and U.S.–Japan deals with improved risk sentiment and reduced demand for haven assets like gold .
Silver prices mirrored gold’s weakness, falling nearly 5% from $38.20 to near $36.50. While silver typically benefits from industrial demand, it proved highly sensitive to the stronger dollar, which increased the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding metals.
Key Economic Data of the week
- JOLTS job openings show decline from the previous month at 7.44m and lower than market expectations.
- Inflation cools down in Australia as CPI falls from 2.1% to 1.9% on a yearly level
- ADP non-farm employment numbers jump to 104K, higher than expectations of 77K
- Advance gross domestic numbers in the US shows the economy grew by 3.0% in the second quarter of 2025
- Bank of Canada keeps interest rate unchanged at 2.75% as analysts expected
- U.S. Federal Reserve keeps interest rate unchanged at 4.25% – 4.50% and reiterates data-driven monetary policy
- The Bank of Japan keeps interest rate below 0.50% as expected
- Core Personal Consumption Expenditure PCE rises slightly to 0.3% on a monthly basis in line with expectations
Major Economic Calendar Events for the Upcoming Week
| Date | Metric | Country | Previous | Time [Dubai] |
| Monday, 4 August | Consumer Price Index (CPI) | m/m | Switzerland | 0.20% | 10:30 AM |
| Tuesday, 5 August | Producer Price Index | m/m | Euro | -0.60% | 1:00 PM |
| ISM Services PMI | USA | 50.8 | 6:00 PM | |
| Wednesday, 6 August | Unemployment Rate | New Zealand | 5.10% | 2:45 AM |
| Retail Sales m/m | Euro | -0.70% | 1:00 PM | |
| Thursday, 7 August | Unemployment Rate | Switzerland | 2.90% | 11:00 AM |
| Interest Rate Decision | UK | 4.25% | 3:00 PM | |
| Unemployment Claims | USA | 4:30 PM | ||
| Friday, 8 August | Unemployment Rate | Canada | 6.90% | 4:30 PM |
Technical Analysis and Forecast:
Nasdaq falls more than 3% from its all-time high
Following the historical gains that U.S. Indices have been experiencing since the beginning of the year, a downward correction is now seen on the daily chart.
Price broke below short-term moving averages MA(5) and MA(10) and currently heading toward MA(30), which may act as a dynamic support. MACD shows a bearish crossover and a bearish signal.
A break below 22,900 with momentum and closure on the daily chart may cause the index to fall to support level 22,300. However, failure to close below MA(30) and a bounce from it is considered a bullish sign.
Nasdaq Daily Chart
| Resistance | 23,259 – 23,278 | 23,559 – 23,587 | 23,678 – 23,706 |
| Support | 22,699 – 22, 721 | 22,365 – 22,378 | 22,252 – 22,268 |
Gold prices fall below $3,300 as the USD shows strength
A broad consolidation of the gold chart has dominated since May. The high at $3,500 in early May was followed by lower highs, showing weakening bullish strength.
All three moving averages MA(5), MA(10), and MA(30) are flattening, indicating a range-bound price action.
Bearish crossover occurred on MACD, suggesting weak bearish momentum.
The overall trend is sideways market with slight bearish direction. Watch out for a break of $3,240 downward or $3,380 upward for directional confirmation.
Gold Daily Chart
| Resistance | $3,331 – $3,354 | $3,376 – $3,441 | $3,451 – $3,467 |
| Support | $3,245 – $3,261 | $3,202 – $3,221 | $3,122 – $3,141 |
Bitcoin drops more than 4% after trading near all-time high
Price is making lower highs and lower lows on the daily chart since reaching the all-time high above $123,000 Price recently broke below moving averages MA(5) and MA(10), and now testing the MA(30) which acts as a dynamic support level around $115,000. If price closes below this level on the daily chart, acceleration toward psychological $110,000 level is possible.
MACD shows clear signs of decelerating bullish momentum and possible reversal downward.
Price action on the daily chart suggests bearish retracement in a strong uptrend. If the current support zone fails, price may test psychological level $110,000
Bitcoin Daily Chart
| Resistance | $119,005 – $120,325 | $120,943 – $121,245 | $123,054 $123,272 |
| Support | $112,400 – $112,652 | $110,540 – $110,643 | $109,872 – $109,978 |
EURUSD falls more than 2.5% as the USD gains momentum
Following the recent uptrend on EURUSD on the daily chart, the pair experienced fluctuation since the beginning of July. However, the last week of the month saw EURUSD drop by more than 2.5%, thanks to a stronger dollar.
Bearish crossover with moving averages MA(5), MA(10) and MA(30) is seen on the daily chart. Price is well below all three moving averages, which suggests strong selling pressure. MACD shows bearish crossover indicating accelerating downside momentum. Overall, the pair is currently in a short-term downtrend within a broader uptrend. If price doesn’t hold above 1.1380, we might see further declines toward 1.1300 and later 1.1220 levels
EURUSD Daily Chart
| Resistance | 1.1557 – 1.1578 | 1.1754 – 1.1770 | 1.1830 – 1.1845 |
| Support | 1.1350 – 1.1376 | 1.1225 – 1.1250 | 1.1153 – 1.1172 |
