Metals
Key Factors
- Gold Dynamics
- Correction after record highs though uptrend remains fundamentally intact.
- Central-bank demand, inflation risks and de-dollarization sustain support.
- Dollar Rebound
- Fed signals pause on cuts, boosting short-term dollar strength.
- Shutdown risks, data delays threaten longer-term confidence and stability.
- Indices and Fed Outlook
- Trump–Xi meeting eases trade tensions but post-rally momentum fades.
- Strong earnings support valuations and inflation data will guide Fed path.
- Oil Market Trends
- Futures in contango as traders price prolonged global oversupply.
- OPEC uncertainty and Russia sanctions inject volatility.
Gold
Fundamental Outlook
Gold enters the new month on uncertain footing after its sharpest one-day drop in more than a decade, a correction that followed months of extraordinary gains. The recent selloff was triggered by easing U.S.-China tensions and heavy profit-taking after a sustained rally that lifted bullion to a record high of $4,381 an ounce. Spot prices are looking to stabilize around the $4,000 mark after traders unwound positions built on expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, a weaker dollar and strong central-bank demand.
Despite the pullback, gold remains up 50% year-to-date, underscoring the depth of structural demand underpinning the market. The prevailing market consensus views the correction as largely technical rather than the start of a longer downtrend. Months of overbought conditions invited profit-taking, but the broader uptrend remains intact, sustained by geopolitical uncertainty and a global push toward de-dollarization. Central banks have continued to accumulate gold reserves at a record pace, with Bank of America data showing the largest weekly inflow into gold funds in history during the latest reporting period.
Looking forward, volatility is likely to persist as traders will be watchful of U.S. inflation data and the outcome of trade talks between the U.S. and major partners. These developments could influence both Fed policy expectations and broader risk sentiment. Still, with inflation risks lingering and monetary easing on the horizon, gold’s fundamental drivers: safe-haven demand and central-bank accumulation remain in place.
Technical Forecast
Gold’s short timeframes reflect a firm bearish bias after failing to stay above the psychological level of $4000, which means there is still room for consolidation. On the daily chart, price action is hovering above the 50-day SMA near $3850 as traders start to buy the dip. The validity of this key support will be tested in the coming days. Its breach would indicate further downside pressure with more profit-taking after August’s parabolic rally, and that would expose $3630 as a second layer of defense. The current mood could call for a short-term consolidation phase as the market digests recent swings. After flirting with 90, the RSI’s drop towards 30 signals rebalancing and the possibility of a near-term pause or corrective rebound. A decisive move above $4180 would be needed to shift momentum, opening the door for further gains towards the peak of $4381.
US Dollar
Fundamental Outlook
The U.S. dollar strengthened after the Fed signaled that further easing may be paused in December. Markets initially anticipated a series of successive cuts through year-end, but Chair Jerome Powell’s emphasis that another reduction was “not a foregone conclusion” prompted investors to scale back dovish bets, lifting the greenback against major peers. The cautious tone, combined with growing uncertainty from the ongoing government shutdown and delayed economic data, reinforced the perception that the Fed will adopt a more measured approach heading into the final stretch of 2025.
The dollar’s rebound reflects both shifting rate expectations and investors’ search for relative stability amid incomplete data and heightened geopolitical risks. With the Fed now signaling it is closer to a “neutral” policy stance, short-term yields may remain elevated, offering continued support to the dollar in November. However, that strength may prove uneven. A prolonged shutdown, which has already disrupted key economic releases, could erode confidence in U.S. policymaking and curb the dollar’s advance.
If signs of labor market softening or weaker inflation emerge, traders could reprice expectations toward renewed easing in early 2026, weighing on the currency. Otherwise, persistent inflation or geopolitical flare-ups could sustain demand for the dollar as a defensive asset. The balance between economic opacity, Fed caution and global volatility will define whether recent gains mark the start of a broader recovery or a temporary reprieve before renewed weakness.
Technical Forecast
The EURUSD daily chart shows subdued momentum as the pair struggles to print higher highs. The recent peak of 1.1920 is a 4-year high and may cause buyers to take some chips off the table, fading the rally. As such, price action has been capped below the 30-day SMA for four weeks, maintaining a broadly consolidation tone. The RSI is inching towards the 30 oversold line and may bring in more buying interests. Last July’s swing low of 1.1400 is a major support level to test the bulls’ resolve as a bearish breakout might trigger a correction towards 1.1200, opening the door to a potential bearish reversal. On the upside, the single currency needs to clear 1.1760 before it could regain the upper hand. Then a follow-up break above 1.1900 would cement the bullish bias in the long-term.
S&P 500
Fundamental Outlook
U.S. equities strive to maintain momentum as investors buy into strength following a wave of upbeat corporate earnings. The S&P 500 rose led by renewed strength in large-cap technology names such as Nvidia, Broadcom, Amazon and Oracle. The gains mark a full recovery from concerns over potential export restrictions to China that had briefly rattled markets.
Sentiment may improve after U.S. President Donald Trump met his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in South Korea. Following their first in-person talks since 2019, Trump described the encounter as “amazing,” announcing that the two countries had agreed to ease tensions in their long-running trade war. Washington will roll back some tariffs, while Beijing pledged to maintain exports of rare earth minerals vital to U.S. technology production. The agreement was widely viewed as a positive step toward restoring supply chain stability and calming market volatility.
Earnings continue to serve as the market’s primary driver, with the majority of S&P 500 companies reporting results above expectations according to FactSet. Analysts see this earnings season as a test for the bull market’s durability, especially as investors evaluate how AI adoption and productivity gains will translate across sectors.
The upcoming trajectory of the index will hinge on the Fed’s policy as another move would reinforce bullish momentum if inflation shows further moderation. However, with trade policies in flux and geopolitical tensions lingering, the market’s resilience will continue to depend on both the depth of earnings strength and the credibility of the Fed’s easing cycle.
Technical Forecast
The S&P 500 remains in a bullish trend, defined by a consistent pattern of higher highs and higher lows, with pullbacks so far proving shallow and short-lived. A meaningful reversal would require a decisive break below key support levels alongside a confirmed topping pattern. The first support is seen at the previous swing low of 6580 which coincides with the 50-day SMA, marking it a critical point to see whether buyers would stay confident. Beneath this, the 6340 area will be the next key downside level. On the upside, initial resistance sits around the latest peak of 6920, and a sustained break above it would likely open the door for a test of the psychological 7000 mark, a level that increasingly looks to be the next target for the bulls.
Oil
Fundamental Outlook
Global oil markets are heading into November under growing pressure, as prices signal that the balance between supply and demand is tipping toward a sustained period of oversupply. WTI crude has slipped to its lowest level since May with the market entering a contango structure, where prompt prices trade below future contracts.
This shift reflects traders’ acceptance of an increasingly bearish outlook, with the International Energy Agency projecting a surplus of 2.35 million barrels per day in 2025 and nearly 4 million in 2026, levels that could flood the market if realized. Yet the selloff may not deepen as much as past cycles, because the outlook for OPEC production remains uncertain. The group’s next moves will be key in helping the market stabilize or letting it slide further.
Adding further complexity, U.S. sanctions on Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil have disrupted flows to China and India, potentially removing a sizable volume from global trade. While Kuwait has indicated OPEC could step in to offset any shortage, Russia has warned that replacing its exports will take time. As the year’s end unfolds, prices are likely to fluctuate between oversupply pressures and renewed geopolitical risk, with market direction hinging on how OPEC+ and global refiners adapt to these rapidly shifting supply dynamics.
Technical Forecast
WTI continues to move lower along a descending trendline from September 2023. As a result, the bias remains bearish, and as long as the price stays below the 50-day moving average, downside momentum is likely to persist over the coming weeks. The RSI continues to hover around the neutral 50 level, reflecting temporary balance during the current consolidation. Initial resistance sits at $66 with $70.60 as an important supply zone where further sideways movements should be expected. A sustained break above this level could trigger a short-term bullish correction. However, the bulls must push past the recent swing high of $78 to convincingly break the trendline. On the downside, a fall below $56, the yearly low would confirm bearish continuation and expose $52.
Key Dates
Monday, Nov 03
U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI
Tuesday, Nov 04
RBA Interest Rate Decision
New Zealand Unemployment Rate
Wednesday, Nov 05
U.S. ISM Services PMI
Friday, Nov 07
Non Farm Payrolls
Canada Unemployment Rate
Tuesday, Nov 11
UK Unemployment Rate
Thursday, Nov 13
Australia Unemployment Rate
UK GDP
U.S. CPI
Monday, Nov 17
Canada CPI
Wednesday, Nov 19
EU CPI
FOMC Minutes
Friday, Nov 21
Japan CPI
Wednesday, Nov 26
U.S. PCE
Friday, Nov 28
Canada GDP
