Metals
Key Takeaways
- Major U.S. indices drop for the week as investors reassessed stretched valuations in the AI and tech sectors.
- AI-related stocks faced heavy profit-taking, led by declines in Nvidia, Microsoft, and Alphabet.
- Gold prices settle around $4,000 an ounce after strong correction at the end of October.
- Oil prices slipped for the second consecutive week, pressured by concerns about global demand and a stronger U.S. dollar.
- Crypto markets took a hit in line with broader tech weakness, as investor caution rose.
US Markets
US major indices experienced a strong pullback. Weakness emerged in technology and growth stocks which are driving markets, which led to a broader slide. The sharp drop in tech pulled on the broader indices, underscoring the market’s dependence on a handful of large-cap stocks for overall performance.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell from 47,587 on Monday to a low of 46,786 by Thursday, before bouncing back above 47,000 on Friday.
Nasdaq 100 started the week positively, but fell more than 3% during the week to a low of 25,043, then managed to settle above 25,200 on Friday.
The S&P500 declined around 2% and ended the week lower at around 6,700 levels.
On the earnings front, Palantir Technologies Inc. out-performed with revenue up 63% year-on-year and earnings per share of $0.21, driven by its AI platform business.
While a large portion of S&P 500 companies beat estimates and average earnings surprise was high, the actual market reaction to good news was relatively weak. Stocks rose only 0.3% following positive earnings. Given the heavier reliance on mega-cap tech and continued policy uncertainties, the market appears in a tactical phase, rewarding winners but remaining wary of broader participation.
Cryptocurrencies fall across the board. Bitcoin drops below $100,000
During the week, the broader cryptocurrency market saw a pronounced decline. Bitcoin slid from just over $110,000 at the start of the week to a low of $98,969 by 5 November, reflecting a drop of more than 10%. The cryptocurrency later recovered and settled above $101,000.
Ethereum and major altcoins also suffered steep declines during the week. Eth fell more than 20% from Monday to Wednesday, to a low of $3,065. By Friday, Eth recovered to $3,350. Altcoins broadly shed between 10–20 % during the week as sentiment turned fragile. The market decline was further underscored by reports of large‐scale liquidations, over $400 million in long positions were blown out.
There were several drivers behind the sharp drop. Macro policy risk re-emerged as a major factor. Comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that a December rate cut was not assured weighed heavily on risk assets, including crypto. And a wave of profit-taking followed crypto’s strong prior run and record high also weighed on the market.
From a technical perspective, the breakdown of support near $107,500 for bitcoin was a key trigger. Once that level was breached, derivative liquidations accelerated, increasing downward momentum in both spot and futures markets.
The market is currently in a sensitive position. If bitcoin can hold above $100,000 for bitcoin and Ethereum above $3,600 for Ethereum, a bounce is possible. However, if macro or regulatory headwinds intensify like a hawkish stance by the Fed, the next leg could push bitcoin toward the $90,000-$95,000 zone, and similarly deep altcoin losses.
The Dollar Index breaks 100.00 critical level, dragging major currencies down
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) broke above the 100.00 psychological level this week, a threshold it hadn’t reached in several months. The main driver for this jump was a shift in market expectations around Federal Reserve policy.
Futures markets reduced the probability of another rate cut in December, interpreting recent stronger-than-expected data (such as a better-than-forecast ADP employment numbers and PMI uptick) as a signal that the Fed may hold rates higher for longer. Additionally, risk-off sentiment gained traction amid equity weakness and delayed U.S. macro data, due to the government shutdown, driving safe-haven flows into the dollar.
As the dollar strengthened, major currency pairs reacted accordingly. EURUSD came under pressure. That dynamic translated into EUR/USD slipping below key support levels 1.1500 and reached 1.1469, as traders adjusted for both eurozone soft data and USD strength. At the same time, the USD/JPY pair rose as the yen weakened amid poor domestic growth signals and a widening interest-rate differential with the U.S., amplifying the dollar’s lift.
Commodity currencies also felt the impact of the dollar rally. AUD/USD and USD/CAD were under pressure. The Canadian dollar, in particular, came under strain given both the stronger USD and mixed outlook for oil.
Looking ahead, the forex market is likely to remain sensitive to several economic indicators. U.S. inflation and employment data, which could either reinforce or reverse the dollar’s strength, Fed communications ,particularly around rate-cut timing, and global risk sentimen.
If the dollar holds above 100 and real U.S. yields remain elevated, the uptrend in the US dollar may continue. Conversely, any dovish surprise from the Fed or sharp deterioration in U.S. growth could trigger a reversal, benefitting currencies like the euro, yen, and other major currencies.
Key Economic Data of the week
- Swiss inflation weakens to -0.3% in October, more than market expectations of -0.1%
- ISM Manufacturing PMI in the US drops to 48.7 from the previous reading of 49.1
- Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates unchanged at 3.60% in line with expectations
- New Zealand unemployment rate rose to 5.3%, but remains in line with expectations.
- ADP Non-Farm Employment numbers show a strong increase to 42K, higher than estimates of 32K
- ISM Services PMI numbers rise unexpectedly to 52.4 in October from 50.0 in September
- Bank of England kept its interest rate unchanged at 4.00%
Major Economic Calendar Events for the Upcoming Week
| Date | Metric | Country | Previous | Time [Dubai] |
| Monday, 10 November | Cleveland Fed Inflation Expectations | USA | Tentative | |
| Tuesday, 11 November | Claimant Count Change | UK | 25.8K | 11:00 AM |
| Tuesday, 11 November | German ZEW Economic Sentiment | Euro | 39.3 | 2:00 PM |
| Wednesday, 12 November | Eurogroup Meetings | Euro | All Day | |
| Thursday, 13 November | Unemployment Rate | Australia | 4:30 AM | |
| Thursday, 13 November | Gross Domestic Product | UK | 11:00 AM | |
| Thursday, 13 November | Unemployment Claims | USA | 5:30 PM | |
| Thursday, 13 November | Consumer Price Index | USA | Tentative | |
| Friday, 14 November | Producer Price Index | USA | 4.00% | 5:30 PM |
| Friday, 14 November | Retail Sales m/m | USA | 5:30 PM |
Technical Analysis and Forecast:
S&P500 Technical Analysis
S&500 has been facing strong selling pressure since the end of October, bringing the index all the way down from its record high of 6,921 to 6,7208 this week. Price is currently finding support around the cluster of the moving averages MA(5, 10, 30). Price has crossed below both the 5-day moving average, which is a short-term bearish signal.
The moving averages indicate that the medium-term uptrend is weakening, and the short-term trend has turned bearish.
MACD has recently moved below the zero line and turned red. This confirms that downward momentum is building. The MACD shows a strong bearish momentum, indicating that the buying momentum has weakened and selling pressure is taking over, supporting the negative price action.
S&P500 Daily Chart
| Resistance | 6,830 – 6,844 | 6,879 – 6,885 | 6,921 – 6,940 |
| Support | 6,681 – 6,707 | 6,655 – 6,670 | 6,578 – 6,593 |
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
Bitcoin is currently trading around $102,000, undergoing a strong corrective wave after reaching record highs in October. The recent decline pushed prices to a low of $98,929 before finding support, from which the cryptocurrency has started to recover modestly.
The daily chart shows a short-term bearish trend, but the latest price action shows that selling pressure may be losing strength. The 30-period moving average, currently above the price near $107,000, continues to act as dynamic resistance, while the shorter-term moving averages are beginning to flatten — a potential sign that the market is stabilizing.
MACD remains bearish overall, however downside momentum is slowing. If Bitcoin continues to hold above $100,000 and breaks through $104,500, it could gain enough momentum to challenge the $107,000 resistance level.
A close above that zone would mark an early sign of trend reversal and open the door for a move toward $110,000. However, failure to maintain current support levels could lead to another test of $98,900 or even $96,000.
Overall, Bitcoin appears to be forming a short-term base after a strong correction, and while the primary trend is still consolidative, the technicals hint at the possibility of a rebound in the near term.
Bitcoin Daily Chart
| Resistance | $104,578 – $104,600 | $108,435 – $108,500 | $111,678 – $111,700 |
| Support | $98,240 – $98,300 | $96,841 – $96,900 | $93,300 – $93,378 |
Gold Technical Analysis
Gold is currently trading near the $4,000 level, consolidating after a powerful rally that pushed prices to a record high of $4,381. Over the past few sessions, the market has moved sideways as traders assess whether the bullish momentum can resume.
The short-term moving averages MA(5) and MA(10) have started to flatten, reflecting a slowdown in buying pressure, while the 30-day moving average remains supportive beneath the price, suggesting that the broader uptrend remains intact. This pattern of consolidation indicates that gold may be building a base before its next move.
MACD remains slightly negative but is showing signs of flattening, which suggests that bearish momentum is fading and that the market may soon transition back to a bullish phase.
If prices manage to hold above the $4,000 – $4,020 area, the next leg higher could target $4,100, followed by $4,250 and potentially a retest of the $4,380 high. Conversely, a decisive break below $3,900 could trigger a deeper correction toward $3,800.
Overall, the technical outlook for gold is neutral to bullish, and as long as it holds above key support, the metal remains positioned for another potential upside breakout.
Gold Daily Chart
| Resistance | $4,045 – $4,078 | $4,159 – $4,178 | $4,250 – $4,268 |
| Support | $3,915 – $3,929 | $3,886 – $3,897 | $3,819 – $3,825 |
EURUSD Technical Analysis
EURUSD is currently trading around 1.1529 after experiencing a consistent decline from its previous high near 1.1917, due to the strength of the US dollar. The overall structure remains bearish in the short term, characterized by a series of lower highs and lower lows
However, after finding temporary support near 1.1391, the pair has begun to show signs of recovery. The 5-day and 10-day moving averages are still positioned below the 30-day moving average, confirming that the broader trend remains to the downside. Yet, these short-term averages have started to turn slightly upward, hinting at a potential rebound, likely to continue the long-term bullish trend.
MACD is still negative but gradually shrinking, suggesting that bearish momentum is weakening and a possible bullish crossover could emerge soon. This development supports the view of a short-term recovery toward the resistance area around 1.1600–1.1650.
If the pair manages to sustain above that zone, a further test of 1.1700 could follow. On the downside, the main support levels lie at 1.1390 and 1.1300. Overall, EURUSD appears to be in a corrective phase within a broader bearish trend, and unless it breaks decisively above 1.1700, sellers still maintain control of the market structure.
EURUSD Daily Chart
| Resistance | 1.1577 – 1.1585 | 1.1669 – 1.1675 | 1.1727 – 1.1740 |
| Support | 1.1470 – 1.1475 | 1.1395 – 1.1400 | 1.1259 – 1.1270 |
