Metals
Key Takeaways
- Gold surged to new record highs, breaking $4,380 per ounce and posting its best weekly performance in decades.
- Silver breaks another record high, surpassing $54.47 per ounce on Friday.
- Safe-haven demand was strong amid concerns about ongoing trade tensions between the US and China.
- U.S. equities rebounded sharply at the start of the week, but failed to sustain the bullish momentum.
- The U.S. economy showed signs of softening in the Fed’s Beige Book, reinforcing expectations for further rate cuts.
- Oil prices posted a third consecutive weekly decline, with Brent crude hovering near $60 per barrel and WTI around $56.
U.S. Equities Fail to Push Higher
The week began with a robust rebound in stocks. The S&P 500 gained nearly 2%, the Nasdaq jumped 3%, and the Dow Jones rose 1.8%, after President Trump softened his tone on China, helping ease fears of renewed tariffs.
However, volatility returned mid-week. A resurgence in trade tensions when Trump floated the idea of halting cooking oil imports from China, triggered pullbacks in risk assets, including tech, crypto, and oil. The narrow nature of the rally was evident. Large-cap tech and semiconductors carried much of the gains, while broader participation lagged.
Going forward, the durability of equity gains will depend on further trade developments, upcoming earnings especially from financials, and clarity from the Fed on its rate path.
Gold and Silver Continue to Break New Records
Gold had a standout week. The precious metal surged past $4,380 per ounce. Silver also hit a record, trading at $54.47 an ounce, marking an impressive 7.5% weekly gain. The rally was fueled by safe-haven flows amid government shutdown uncertainty, trade tensions, and expectations of Fed easing.
Looking ahead, key factors for commodities include U.S. inflation data, trade developments, especially with China, and how bond yields and the U.S. dollar behave. If rate cuts become more certain, gold and silver may continue to outperform.
USD weakens and EURUSD Bounced Back from Major Support
The US dollar was under pressure throughout the week, with EUR/USD rising almost 1% to 1.1730 . GBPUSD bounced back from the mid-week levels of 1.3250 to above 1.3470.
USD/JPY showed notable weakness over the week as it fell below 150.00 by Friday, down more than 1% from the weekly open. The U.S. dollar overall weakened modestly. The dollar index (DXY) fell about 0.9% over the week, reaching 98.00 levels.
Key Economic Data of the week
- Claimant Count Change in the UK jumps to 25.8K, higher than expectations of 10.3K
- Consumer price index in China rises to -0.3% from the previous reading of -0.4%
- Producer price index in China comes as expected at -2.3%, higher than previous reading of -2.9%
- The Empire State Manufacturing Index jumps to 10.7, surpassing excpectations
- Australian unemployment rate rises to 4.5% from the previous reading of 4.3%.
- UK’s GDP rose 0.1% on monthly basis in August, in line with expectations
Major Economic Calendar Events for the Upcoming Week
| Date | Metric | Country | Previous | Time [Dubai] |
| Monday, 20 October | Consumer Price Index q/q | New Zealand | 0.50% | 1:45 AM |
| Monday, 20 October | BOC Business Outlook Survey | Canada | 6:30 PM | |
| Tuesday, 21 October | Consumer Price Index y/y | Canada | 2.50% | 4:30 PM |
| Wednesday, 22 October | Consumer Price Index y/y | UK | 3.80% | 10:00 AM |
| Thursday, 23 October | Retail Sales | Canada | -0.80% | 10:30 AM |
| Friday, 24 October | Flash Manufacturing PMI | Euro | 49.8 | 12:00 PM |
| Friday, 24 October | Flash Services PMI | Euro | 51.3 | 12:00 PM |
| Friday, 24 October | Consumer Price Index y/y | USA | 2.90% | 4:30 PM |
| Friday, 24 October | Flash Manufacturing PMI | USA | 52 | 5:45 PM |
| Friday, 24 October | Flash Services PMI | USA | 54.2 | 5:45 PM |
| Friday, 24 October | New Home Sales | USA | 800K | 6:00 PM |
Technical Analysis and Forecast:
Gold new high
Gold’s daily chart demonstrates a powerful and sustained upward movement since late August. The daily candles are consistently green, with minimal pullbacks, highlighting the strength of the uptrend.
Moving averages are in perfect bullish alignment with the price trading above all, which confirms a very strong and healthy uptrend. The distance between the MAs and the price suggests substantial momentum.
MACD is in a strong positive phase. Both the MACD line and the signal line are trending sharply higher, confirming strong and accelerating bullish momentum.
The outlook for gold remains bullish. A correction towards the dynamic support of moving average MA(10) and MA(30), could push prices higher again.
Gold Daily Chart
| Resistance | $4,400 – $4,425 | $4,450 – $4,460 | $4,500 – $4,525 |
| Support | $4,278 – $4,296 | $4,091 – $4,114 | $4,000 – $4,025 |
Oil prices fall to a 5-month low
The daily chart on Brent displays a sustained and significant sell-off since the beginning of October, bringing prices down from $70 levels to around $60, forming lower highs and lower lows.
The three main moving averages MA(5), MA(10), and MA(30) exhibit a clear bearish alignment. And with the price below all of them, this confirms the strength of the downtrend.
MACD has been in a strong bearish phase since early October. And it’s now in negative territory, signaling powerful downside momentum.
Overview of oil prices is strongly bearish. All major indicators confirm a robust downtrend. If price corrects upward and fails to close above the 30-day moving average, a continuation of the bearish rally is likely.
Brent Daily Chart
| Resistance | $62.80 – $62.96 | $63.67 – $63.73 | $64.63 – $64.81 |
| Support | $60.00 – $60.12 | $58.82 – $59.00 | $58.17 – $58.25 |
Nasdaq loses momentum and trades lower
The strong bullish rally on Nasdaq has recently been interrupted by a sharp correction downward, suggesting a potential shift in momentum from bullish to consolidating.
Moving averages MA(5), MA(10), and MA(30) seem to have flattened and clustered with the price, indicating that the uptrend is currently under pressure.
MACD is showing a clear bearish signal. The MACD line has crossed sharply below the signal line and both lines are now trending down.
The technical outlook for Nasdaq is cautiously bearish in the short-term, with a bullish long-term trend still intact. The immediate threat comes from the bearish MACD crossover and the rejection from the high. If the price breaks decisively below the 24,000 level, it would confirm a deeper correction. For a return to the strong uptrend, the index must close decisively back above the 25,000 resistance level.
Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart
| Resistance | 24,772 – 24,831 | 25,000 – 25,054 | 25,200 – 25,247 |
| Support | 24,255 – 24,282 | 23,976 – 24,035 | 23,848 – 23,931 |
Bitcoin weakness accelerates
The daily chart of bitcoin shows a clear, recent reversal from a major high, signaling a powerful return of sellers. Daily candles are predominantly large and red, showing strong selling conviction. The recent series of lower highs and lower lows confirms the established short-term downtrend structure.
All three Moving Averages (MA 5, 10, and 30) are now in a bearish alignment, indicating that the short-term trend has weakened the medium-term trend.
MACD is deep in a bearish phase, confirming strong and accelerating downside momentum.
The technical picture for bitcoin is turning bearish. The recent price action points to clear selling pressure. The next critical support level for bitcoin is $103,000. Closing below this level could bring prices down to $100,000.
Bitcoin Daily Chart
| Resistance | $110,340 – $110,450 | $113,157 – $113,670 | $115,240 – $115,680 |
| Support | $103,150 – $103,300 | $101,205 – $101,450 | $99,226 – $99,437 |
