Metals
Key Takeaways
- Gold surged to new record highs, crossing the $4,000 per ounce mark amid safe-haven demand and expectations of U.S. Fed rate cuts.
- Silver climbed toward record levels, benefiting from industrial demand and supply shortages.
- Bitcoin sets a fresh all-time high above $126,200 on institutional flows and weakening USD.
- After reaching record highs, stocks pulled back as investors weighed the risk of the U.S. government shutdown.
- US government shutdown continues after Congress failed to pass funding legislation.
US Equities Pull Back After Reaching Record Highs
US indices had mixed performances during the week. The Dow Jones reversed from its all-time high and dropped around 0.9% to 46,355. S&P500 rose slightly to 6,765. But Nasdaq was leading the US market gains as it jumped 1.5% during the week to a new all-time high at 25,191.
One of the drivers of that strength was news from the AI and semiconductor space. On October 6, AMD announced a landmark partnership with OpenAI, agreeing to supply 6 gigawatts of GPUs over multiple years. This deal sparked intense investor enthusiasm in chip names and amplified optimism around further AI-driven growth. AMD shares jumped 43% during the week after this news, helping lift broader tech and semiconductor segments.
Since the U.S. government shutdown was unresolved, many routine economic releases, such as nonfarm payrolls were delayed or disrupted, which increased the market’s sensitivity to corporate results, sector news, or headline risk.
Going forward, the durability of the rally will depend on how the market digests upcoming earnings, whether AI-adjacent deal flow continues, and if any resolution or developments in the shutdown reduces political risk.
Gold and Silver Break New Record Highs, Oil Remains Range Bound
Gold dominated commodity markets during the week, as it reached a high of $4,059 on Wednesday, reflecting the overwhelming global demand for safe-haven assets. The rally was primarily driven by growing conviction among traders that the Federal Reserve would begin its rate-cutting cycle before the end of the year, and mounting concerns over the prolonged U.S. government shutdown. Lower interest rates tend to weaken the U.S. dollar and reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, amplifying buying momentum.
ETF inflows and central bank purchases added further strength to gold’s performance. Data showed that global gold-backed ETFs recorded their largest weekly inflow since early 2023, with U.S. and European funds leading the charge.Other central banks also continued accumulating gold reserves as part of a long-term diversification strategy away from the dollar. This institutional demand provided strong underlying support to prices.
Silver followed gold’s lead, reaching a new all-time high of $51.23 before retreating below $50 psychological level. The precious metal benefited from both its role as a safe haven and its industrial importance in electronics and renewable energy sectors.
Oil prices remained range-bound, with Brent crude trading near $64/barrel and WTI around $61/barrel, weighed down by mixed signals.
The Dollar Index Recovers as Major Currencies Retreat
The U.S. dollar has staged a rebound during the week, gaining strength after a prolonged slide earlier in the year. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has climbed above 99.50, recovering some of the losses it had sustained. This comeback has been underpinned by stronger relative yields in U.S. Treasuries, and weaker major counterparts (yen, euro) facing domestic headwinds
In major currency pairs, trends have been mixed but indicative of shifting sentiment. EUR/USD remains under downward pressure, losing nearly 200 pips as it fell to 1.15 levels, weighed by French political uncertainty and eurozone growth concerns, and capped by dollar strength. Meanwhile, AUD/USD and NZD/USD have suffered more pronounced declines. AUD dropped around 0.9% over a recent stretch as the dollar’s rally and weakening risk appetite weighed heavily. USD/JPY continues to be a key currency to watch the yen weaken further, driven by political change in Japan and expectations of persistent policy divergence.
The Canadian dollar (CAD) slipped to a four-month low against the dollar, crossing the 1.40 threshold, as safe-haven flows favored USD and oil prices softened. Other FX pairs have held relatively stable, but many are vulnerable to shifts in global risk appetite, U.S. rate expectations, and capital flows.
Looking ahead, the forex market outlook will hinge on several key drivers. First, U.S. macro data, especially inflation, employment, and retail figures could either reinforce dollar strength or reverse its recent gains. Second, central bank divergences will matter. If the Fed signals further easing while others hold or tighten, USD could gain further. Third, political developments Japan’s new leadership, eurozone challenges, U.S. fiscal and shutdown dynamics could create abrupt moves.
Key Economic Data of the week
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand surprised the markets with a 50 bps cut bringing the official cash rate to 2.50%
- FOMC meeting minutes showed unanimous agreement on rate cuts in 2025 as the US labor market weakens.
- US employment numbers were officially cancelled as the government shutdown continues.
- Ivey PMI numbers in Canada beat expectations with a reading of 59.8, up from 50.1 last month
- Producer Price Index in Japan remain at 2.7%, higher than market expectations of 2.5%
Major Economic Calendar Events for the Upcoming Week
| Date | Metric | Country | Previous | Time [Dubai] |
| Monday, 13 October | CB Leading Index m/m | UK | -0.10% | 5:30 PM |
| Tuesday, 14 October | Claimant Count Change | UK | 17.4K | 10:00 AM |
| Tuesday, 14 October | German ZEW Economic Sentiment | Euro | 37.3 | 1:00 PM |
| Wednesday, 15 October | Consumer Price Index y/y | USA | 2.90% | 4:30 PM |
| Wednesday, 15 October | Empire State Manufacturing Index | USA | 4:30 PM | |
| Wednesday, 15 October | Beige Book | USA | 10:00 PM | |
| Thursday, 16 October | Unemployment Rate | Australia | 4.20% | 4:30 AM |
| Thursday, 16 October | Gross Domestic Product m/m | UK | 0.00% | 10:00 AM |
| Thursday, 16 October | Producer Price Index m/m | USA | -0.10% | 4:30 PM |
| Thursday, 16 October | Retail Sales | USA | 0.60% | 4:30 PM |
Technical Analysis and Forecast:
Gold Technical Analysis
Gold continues its upward trend as it recorded its 8th week of consistent gains. The precious metal broke a new record high this week as it pushed above $4,059. Price action shows higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart.
All three moving averages MA(5), MA(10), and MA(30) are aligned bullishly, with short and mid-term moving averages acting as dynamic support levels.
MACD shows a strong bullish momentum, and no crossovers or signs of slowing momentum.
The bias on gold remains strongly bullish, but a moderate correction is expected to reach $3,800. A daily close below the 10-day moving average could trigger a deeper correction.
Gold Daily Chart
| Resistance | $4,059 – $4,065 | $4,100 – $4,125 | $4,200 $4,225 |
| Support | $3,898 – $3,912 | $3,819 – $3,825 | $3,780 – $3,785 |
GBPUSD Technical Analysis
GBPUSD has been mostly trading sideways since July. The price has recently broken below the 1.3323 support level, suggesting further weakness. All three moving averages (5, 10, 30) are sloping downward, confirming sustained bearish sentiment.
The structure shows repeated rejections around the 1.3750 – 1.3780 zone, and the 1.3525 zone where the 30-day moving average acted as dynamic resistance.
Bias on the pair remains bearish below 1.3400. A daily close under 1.3240 would confirm continuation toward 1.3130 or even 1.3000. Buyers need a strong close above 1.3570 to reverse short-term momentum.
GBPUSD Daily Chart
| Resistance | 1.3425 – 1.3450 | 1.3536 – 1.3575 | 1.3623 – 1.3645 |
| Support | 1.3142 – 1.3150 | 1.3045 – 1.3050 | 1.2879 – 1.2885 |
Nasdaq 100 Technical Analysis
Nasdaq 100 remains in a strong uptrend, consistently supported by the 10-day moving average. Price continues to form higher highs and higher lows, suggesting that buyers remain in control despite short-term overbought conditions.
Currently, the index is consolidating slightly below its all-time high of 25,220, indicating mild resistance but no sign of reversal yet.
The 5-day moving average remains above the 10-day and 30-day moving averages, maintaining a clear bullish alignment. The 30-day moving average has served as a key dynamic support for several weeks.
The MACD remains positive with no bearish crossover yet, meaning the trend remains intact.
Nasdaq 100 remains bullish as long as price holds above 24,800. Any pullback toward the 24,200–24,300 zone could provide a buying opportunity. A confirmed breakout above 25,220 would likely open the way toward 25,600–26,000.
Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart
| Resistance | 25,400 – 25,420 | 25,500 – 25,525 | 25,600 – 25,625 |
| Support | 24,775 – 24,287 | 24,419 – 24,467 | 24,182 – 24,205 |
Ethereum Technical Analysis
ETHUSD recently failed to sustain above the $4,750 resistance level, marking a lower high, a sign of potential exhaustion in the bullish momentum. The 5-day and 10-day moving averages have just crossed bearishly, indicating the short-term trend has turned downward.
The recent candles show rejection around the $4,760 zone, followed by a breakdown below the $4,400 level, confirming short-term weakness.
The MACD line has crossed below the signal line, reinforcing bearish momentum. The indicator shows that selling pressure is increasing after a failed bullish recovery attempt.
Ethereum shows a short-term bearish bias but remains within a broader bullish structure. A rebound from the $4,100 region could trigger another retest toward $4,550. A daily close below $4100, however, opens the path toward $3,850 support zone
Ethereum Daily Chart
| Resistance | $4,770 – $4,785 | $4,959 – $4,975 | $5,000 – $5,100 |
| Support | $4,100 – $4,120 | $3,828 – $3,856 | $3,355 – $3,375 |
