Metals
Key Factors
- Gold Drivers
- Rate cut expectations keep gold near record highs.
- Trade tensions boost safe-haven flows.
- Dollar Pressures
- U.S. government shutdown echoes past risk aversion.
- Prolonged disruptions may drive capital outflows.
- Equities and Fed Expectations
- Tech-led gains continue thanks to AI optimism.
- Cautious Fed leaves markets sensitive to upcoming earnings.
- Oil Market Dynamics
- Saudi Arabia balances market share goals with fragile demand.
- OPEC+ raises oversupply concerns.
Gold
Fundamental Outlook
Gold has surged 45% this year, repeatedly hitting record highs as central-bank buying and expectations of lower U.S. interest rates continue to underpin demand. The momentum is also fueled by lingering trade uncertainties, which are set to remain a key theme heading into October.
Tensions resurfaced after Trump announced new global tariffs targeting furniture and lumber. The announcement came despite ongoing negotiations between U.S. and Chinese delegations, underscoring Trump’s continued focus on boosting domestic industry. While tariffs may provide relief to some domestic manufacturers, they also raise input costs and risk inflating consumer prices, complicating the broader economic picture. With CPI still hot, such policies could extend price pressures at a time when the Fed is attempting to engineer a soft landing through gradual interest rate cuts.
Markets widely expect another round of monetary easing before the year’s end. Against this backdrop, the precious metal stands to benefit from both directions of risk as lower rates would support non-yielding assets, and higher trade-related uncertainty may fuel safe-haven demand. Therefore, October’s trajectory will hinge on the interplay between trade developments, inflation trends and the Fed response.
Technical Forecast
Gold’s decisive break above $3800 underscores the strength of its prevailing uptrend and marks another important psychological milestone. The rally leaves $3900 and the symbolic $4000 level as the next upside targets with resistance uncertain as price action ventures into uncharted territory. The lack of genuine selling is likely to keep the uptrend intact for the next few weeks.
On the downside, initial support is layered at $3630 on the 30-day SMA then $3480, and more firmly at $3310 at the base of the recent leg up. Momentum signals are stretched, with RSI deeply overbought across multiple time frames. However, this highlights the intensity of bullish pressure rather than providing a clear sell signal. Without a reversal pattern forming, pullbacks are still likely to be treated as partial profit-taking and buying opportunities within the broader bullish structure.
US Dollar
Fundamental Outlook
The U.S. government shutdown in October 2025 casts a significant shadow over the U.S. dollar, with historical precedents and current market sentiment pointing towards weakness. A shutdown would introduce a layer of uncertainty into financial markets, prompting investors to shy away from risk assets, most of which are dollar-denominated. This is exacerbated by possible delays in economic data releases, which can leave the Fed and market participants without crucial information for decision-making.
Recent market movements already reflect these concerns, with the dollar softening as the threat of a shutdown looms. During the 2018-19 shutdown, the greenback fell across the board and the current trend shows the currency going in the same direction.
While the long-term economic impact of shutdowns on GDP has historically been limited, the immediate effect on currency markets is quite obvious. A prolonged shutdown could further dampen investor confidence, leading to capital outflows and a continued weakening of the dollar against major currencies. Such a scenario may complicate the Fed’s policy agenda.
Technical Forecast
The EURUSD daily chart highlights a broken rising channel with the pair going back and forth around the 30-day SMA and struggling to regain upside traction. While a modest rebound has emerged from multi-week lows, breaking above 1.1800, the broader picture remains fragile. Support sits at 1.1580 at the base of the latest rally, then the critical floor of 1.1410 aligns with last July’s swing low.
A decisive drop below said levels would trigger profit-taking and open the way toward the mid-May trough at 1.1100. On the upside, buyers need to reclaim 1.1900 to shift momentum with further resistance at the 1.2000 psychological barrier, where a bullish continuation would challenge the May 2021 high of 1.2200.
Nasdaq 100
Fundamental Outlook
The Nasdaq continues to lead gains as investors pile into tech shares despite lingering risks from a possible government shutdown and cautious commentary from Fed officials. The high-growth sector remains the market’s darling, fueled by confidence in artificial intelligence-related expansion and expectations that monetary policy will turn more supportive.
Yet, as October unfolds, the central tension between investor optimism and Fed caution is likely to influence the month’s trading. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack urged that policy stay restrictive to cool inflation, while St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem left the door open to cuts but emphasized vigilance. Futures markets remain convinced that a rate cut is imminent, with nearly a 90% probability priced in, setting the stage for volatility if Fed messaging diverges.
Looking ahead, the fourth quarter typically favors equities thanks to year-end positioning and holiday-driven demand, and this seasonal tailwind could help sustain momentum. However, earnings season will take center stage in October, and corporate guidance on pricing and margins will be scrutinized for signs of whether inflation pressures are easing or not. If companies show pricing power, the Fed may be forced to temper expectations of a dovish pivot. Technology strength provides short-term support, but the durability of the rally depends on how earnings shape the Fed’s path forward.
Technical Forecast
The market has pulled back from overbought territory but continues to trend higher. The daily RSI briefly exceeded 70 before easing, yet momentum on longer-term charts remains strong. This signals underlying strength rather than weakness, making the bearish case harder to justify unless key supports give way.
The 25000 milestone is a major psychological level watch to see if buyers would flinch. Another convincing move would propel price action towards 26000, confirming the upbeat mood in the medium-term. However, a retracement cannot be excluded to give the bulls some breathing room. 24000 on the 30-day SMA is the immediate support to monitor as its break would shift the focus to 23100.
Oil
Fundamental Outlook
Saudi Arabia will modestly raise its official selling prices for November crude to Asian buyers, reflecting recent gains in Middle East benchmarks while remaining cautious given fragile market conditions. Riyadh is unlikely to pursue aggressive hikes, in part because negotiations over 2026 term supply contracts are ongoing, and refiners are already facing higher freight costs that limit their ability to absorb further price hikes. The decision will carry significant weight, as Saudi OSPs typically set the tone for around 9 million barrels per day of regional crude bound for Asia, influencing competitors such as Iran, Kuwait and Iraq.
OPEC+ is expected to approve another production increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day at its upcoming meeting, a move aimed at capitalizing on higher oil prices while defending market share. Yet, rising Iraqi exports are adding to perceptions of oversupply, creating headwinds for prices.
Geopolitical risk is adding another layer of uncertainty. The recognition of a Palestinian state by several Western countries has intensified Middle East tensions, drawing sharp reactions from Israel and the U.S.. With France convening a summit on a two-state solution which is already boycotted by Washington, regional politics could spill into energy markets if disruptions threaten supply routes.
How sustainable the oil rebound is will hinge on how Saudi Arabia calibrates its pricing strategy between competitive pressures, OPEC+ coordination and the risk premium tied to geopolitics.
Technical Forecast
WTI crude remains broadly confined within its three-year descending channel from the 2022 highs, with RSI holding below the 50 neutral threshold to reinforce the prevailing bearish bias. However, the market is attempting to stabilize, and a constructive base above $60 could allow for a recovery phase back toward the channel’s upper boundary near $71.
On the topside, the round number of $70 is the immediate hurdle, and a major supply zone lies between $71 and the previous swing high of $75. On the downside, a break below the bottom at $56 would trigger a new round of sell-off towards the $50 mark.
Key Dates
Friday, Oct 03
Non Farm Payrolls
Wednesday, Oct 08
FOMC Minutes
Wednesday, Oct 15
U.S. CPI
Thursday, Oct 16
UK GDP
Thursday, Oct 17
EU CPI
Tuesday, Oct 21
Canada CPI
Wednesday, Oct 29
Australia CPI
BoC Interest Rate Decision
Thursday, Oct 30
BoJ Interest Rate Decision
EU GDP
ECB Interest Rate Decision
Friday, Oct 31
U.S. Core PCE
